[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 6 10:31:00 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 158/112 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 5-Oct was at the R0 level.
There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and three unnumbered regions. AR3451 (N17W04,
beta-gamma) is the most significant active region on the solar
disk. It was responsible for the largest C-class flare of the
day and has shown development over the 24 hour period. AR3452
(N12W06, beta) is the largest active region on the solar disk,
but showed some simplification in its intermediate spots over
the UT day. AR3457 (S11E51, alpha) produced a strong C-class
flare on 5-Oct and AR3455 (N25E22, alpha) showed spot development.
All other sunspot regions were either stable or in decay. Two
unnumbered regions have recently developed on the solar disk,
one at S11E12 and one at N15E09, both display beta magnetic characteristics
and are small. A third unnumbered region has recently rotated
onto the solar disk at around N10E80 and appears to have alpha
magnetic characteristics, but its proximity to the eastern limb
makes this difficult to discern. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R0 level over 6-8 Oct, with a chance of R1 flaring
activity. Several CMEs were observed on 5-Oct. A northwest directed
CME was observed in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 5/0136UT,
with no associated on disk activity, this CME is not considered
geoeffective. A large filament lift off on the northeastern limb,
visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 4/2158UT, is associated
with a slow, north directed, CME visible in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery from 5/0312UT. Modelling suggests the chance of a glancing
impact with Earth on 9-Oct at 2100UT +/- 12 hours, but this is
low confidence. Further analysis will be performed on this CME.
An eruption is visible at around N28 on the eastern limb from
5/0755UT in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. An associated, faint,
east directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from
5/0912UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective. A filament
eruption is visible on the western limb between N10 and N30 in
SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 5/1856UT. A west directed CME
is visible associated with this event in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 5/1948UT. Modelling indicates that this CME has no geoeffective
component and will pass ahead of the Earth. The solar wind speed
on UT day 5-Oct increased, ranging from 410 to 497 km/s and is
currently near 485 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -7 nT. A mild shock is visible in the solar
wind parameters at 5/2140UT. Combined with a recent rise in energetic
protons measured by ACE, this indicates a weak CME impact has
occurred. The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderate
over 6-Oct, following the recent CME impact. A further increase
is expected over 7-8 Oct due to a long coronal hole in the northern
hemisphere which is rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 23132103
Cocos Island 4 22121101
Darwin 8 23132103
Townsville 8 23132103
Learmonth 9 33232103
Alice Springs 7 23132003
Gingin 11 33142113
Canberra 7 22141003
Hobart 9 23241003
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 26 23374102
Casey 14 34332114
Mawson 30 66433232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2222 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 15 G0, chance of G1
07 Oct 18 G0, chance of G1
08 Oct 14 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 60 was issued on 5 October
and is current for 6-7 Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 5-Oct. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G3 at Macquarie Island and G2 conditions observed at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1, are expected
over 6-7 Oct due to an ongoing CME impact, combined with expected
high speed wind stream effects on 7-Oct from a coronal hole rotating
towards a geoeffective position. G0 conditions are expected on
8-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
5-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
6-8 Oct, with a chance of mild degradations at high latitudes
over 7-8 Oct, due to possible geomagnetic activity over 6-7 Oct.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
07 Oct 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
08 Oct 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 5-Oct were
15-40% enhanced in the southern Australian region, with enhancements
of around 25% during local day. MUFs in the northern Australian
region were near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced, with
most enhancements occurring during local night. Spread-F was
observed at Hobart during local night and sporadic E was observed
at frequencies below MUF at Cocos Islands during local day. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
over 6-8 Oct, with a slight chance of depressions in the southern
Australian region over 7-8 Oct due to possible geomagnetic activity
over 6-7 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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