[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 04 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 5 10:31:03 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 162/116 162/116
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 4-Oct was at the R0 level.
Solar activity was very quiet, with a C3.0 flare the largest
of the day. There are currently nine numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3452 (N12E07,
beta-gamma) remains the largest and most magnetically complex
region on the solar disk and has exhibited spot development in
its intermediate spots over the UT day. AR3450 (S18W24, beta)
also exhibited intermediate spot development. AR3454 (S14E28,
beta) displayed spot development, but is small and relatively
noncomplex. One unnumbered region developed on the solar disk
on 4-Oct and is visible at S16E15 with beta magnetic characteristics.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 5-7 Oct, with
a chance of R1 flaring activity. Several CMEs were observed on
4-Oct, but none are considered geoeffective. A west directed
CME was observed in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 4/0036UT.
An associated eruption is visible behind the western limb from
4/0029UT at around N30 in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery. This CME
is not considered geoeffective. A narrow, west directed, CME
was observed from 4/0912UT with no clear associated on disk activity.
Modelling indicates that this CME is not geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 4-Oct increased, ranging from 326 to 477
km/s and is currently near 425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain mostly steady over 5-6 Oct. An increase is expected
on 7-Oct due to a long coronal hole in the northern hemisphere
which is rotating towards a geoeffective position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22221212
Cocos Island 5 21221212
Darwin 5 12221212
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 6 22222212
Alice Springs 5 22221211
Gingin 6 21221222
Canberra 5 12221122
Hobart 6 12322111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 18 12643211
Casey 16 45322123
Mawson 21 53323235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 1221 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 8 G0
06 Oct 8 G0
07 Oct 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 4-Oct. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 at Casey and Mawson
and an isolated period of G2 at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 5-7 Oct, with a chance of G1 on
7-Oct due to high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole
approaching a geoeffective position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
4-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
5-7 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Oct 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
07 Oct 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 4-Oct were
20-25% enhanced in the southern Australian region, with most
enhancements occurring during local day. MUFs in the northern
Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced,
with most enhancements occurring during local night. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
over 5-7 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 65600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list