[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 03 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 4 10:31:12 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Oct was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3452 (N12E20, beta) remains the largest region on the
solar disk and has exhibited spot development over the UT day,
particularly in its intermediate spots. AR3453 (N12W13, beta)
has shown growth in its intermediate spots whilst its trailer
spots have decayed. AR3448 (N14W32, beta) has exhibited slight
growth in its trailer spots. AR3454 (S14E41, beta) has shown
growth in its leader spot. Newly numbered AR3456 (S31W04, beta)
has shown rapid growth since appearing on the solar disk. One
unnumbered region is visible at N28W49 (alpha) and has shown
mild growth since appearing on the solar disk. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 04-06 Oct. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. An east-directed CME was
observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery
from 03/1248UT. This CME is considered to be farside and therefore
not Earth-directed. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Oct increased,
ranging from 325 to 375 km/s and is currently near 375 km/s.
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 03/1122UT, indicative
of a CME impact. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +3 to -7 nT. A sustained period of southward IMF conditions
was observed from 03/1122-1611UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 04-06 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12112211
Cocos Island 4 11112211
Darwin 4 12112211
Townsville 6 12223211
Learmonth 7 12213312
Alice Springs 5 12113211
Gingin 6 11212312
Canberra 4 11112211
Hobart 5 11112311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 10024420
Casey 10 33322222
Mawson 13 33212334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3312 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 8 G0
05 Oct 6 G0
06 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Oct. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 04-06 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
03-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 04-06 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night and after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15-20% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Oct 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 103 was issued on
2 October and is current for 2-4 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 03-Oct were near predicted
monthly values to 25% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 04-06 Oct. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 41500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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