[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 October 23 issued 2331 UT on 02 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 3 10:31:00 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1246UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 157/111 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Oct was at the R1 level,
due to a M1.9 flare at 02/1246UT from AR3455 (N25E61, beta).
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR3452 (N12E34, beta) is the largest region on
the solar disk and has shown growth in its intermediate spots
over the UT day. AR3451 (N17E36, beta) and AR3453 (N12E01, beta)
have both exhibited some mild spot development. AR3450 (S18E03,
beta) has shown decay in its intermediate spots. Newly numbered
AR3455 has shown slight growth since appearing on the solar disk.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. The
background level of X-ray flux has declined over the UT day but
remains at low C-class levels. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 03-05 Oct. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. The aforementioned M1.9 flare produced by AR3455
appeared to be eruptive in SDO imagery, however no associated
CME was observed in coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed
on UT day 02-Oct was mostly stable, ranging from 340 to 395 km/s
and is currently near 355 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. There is a chance of a mild increase
in the solar wind speed on 03-Oct due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the solar northern
hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12121111
Cocos Island 2 11111110
Darwin 4 22112111
Townsville 5 12212122
Learmonth 6 21222122
Alice Springs 3 11111111
Gingin 4 11121121
Canberra 4 12121112
Hobart 5 12221112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 22141001
Casey 9 33312122
Mawson 14 53313222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 4212 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 10 G0
04 Oct 8 G0
05 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 03-05 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
02-Oct. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 03-05 Oct. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day and night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 103 was issued on
2 October and is current for 2-4 Oct. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 02-Oct were near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 03-05 Oct. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 200000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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