[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 2 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 0132UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 162/116 162/116
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 1-Oct was at the R1 level,
with an M2.5 flare at 01/0132UT. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR3451 (N15E50, beta-gamma) has been renamed as two
regions with AR3452 (N09E50, beta) to the south. AR3452 produced
the only M-class flare of the day and both regions showed spot
development, with AR3452 close to a gamma configuration. These
are the most significant sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3450
(S18E17, beta-gamma) and AR3453 (N12E15, beta) also showed spot
development over the UT day, but have no history of significant
flare activity. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Two unnumbered regions are visible on the solar disk.
One has developed at around N31E23 and the other has recently
rotated on at around N25E65. Both regions have beta magnetic
characteristics and are small. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 2-4 Oct. No geoeffective CMEs were observed
on 1-Oct. An eruption is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery
associated with the M2.5 flare at around 01/0144UT. However,
there is no associated material lift off visible in H-Alpha imagery
and no associated CME visible from this event. A small filament
at around N50E20 lifted off the disk at around 01/0559UT, visible
in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. There is no associated
CME visible from this event. The solar wind speed on UT day 1-Oct
was steady, ranging from 391 km/s to 433 km/s. The solar wind
speed is currently around 405 km/s. The total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 2-3 Oct due to high speed wind stream effects
from a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere that has rotated
into a geoeffective position. A decline in wind speed is expected
on 4-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21212012
Cocos Island 3 22201000
Darwin 4 21212012
Townsville 4 21212012
Learmonth 5 21212112
Alice Springs 4 21202012
Gingin 5 21212122
Canberra 3 21112011
Hobart 4 22212011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 32234010
Casey 12 35322012
Mawson 13 33212125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 1142 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 14 G0, chance of G1
03 Oct 10 G0
04 Oct 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 1-Oct. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with
a chance of G1, are expected on 2-Oct due to high speed wind
stream effects from a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere
in a geoeffective position. G0 conditions are expected on 3-4
Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
1-Oct, with some minor degradations at mid to high latitudes.
Generally normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
2-4 Oct, although some mild degradations may be observed over
2-3 Oct at high latitudes due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 93
Nov 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 1-Oct were 15% enhanced in the northern Australian
region. MUFs were near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
in the southern Australian region, with most depressions occurring
during local day. Spread-F was observed at Hobart, Canberra and
Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 2-4 Oct. There
is a chance for further minor depressions in the southern Australian
region on 2-3 Oct due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 63800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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