[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 28 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 29 10:31:25 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4 1932UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M9.8 1950UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 182/135
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity R1-R3 R1-R3 R1-R3
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 182/135 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Nov reached R2, with an
isolated M9.9 solar flare at 28/1950 UT from AR3500 (S18W00,
beta-gamma), making is just under the R3 threshold. This event
followed an M3.4 flare from the same region. There are currently
ten numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3492 (N24W38,
beta) and AR3500 have shown some growth over the past day, and
AR3502 (N13W37, alpha) and AR3503 (N21E25, alpha) appear to be
unstable. AR3500 is currently the most complex region on the
disk and the most flare productive. Solar activity is expected
to be mostly R0 with isolated R1-R3 level flares possible, primarily
due to AR3500.
There is a chance for an enhancement to the 10
MeV proton flux following the M9 flare. S1 solar radiation storm
conditions have a small chance to commence on 29-Nov.
A filament
eruption in the solar northeast was observed from 27/2344 UT
and was associated with a CME from 27/2348 UT. This CME is not
expected to significantly impact Earth, however it may pass close
to Earth on early 01-Dec. It is possible this CME may also interact
with two earlier CMEs that are currently en route to Earth. A
second CME was observed associated with a prominence eruption
in the solar northeast from 28/0136 and is not expected to be
geoeffective. Early images of a halo CME associated with the
M9 flare are available, however analysis of this event is ongoing.
Preliminary analysis suggests this CME will have an Earth-directed
component. At this stage, it appears there are two successive
CMEs: one from the M3 flare, and another from the M9 flare. The
solar wind environment on UT day 28-Nov was near background levels.
The solar wind speed ranged between 509 and 407 km/s and is on
a slight declining trend. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22221222
Cocos Island 3 21111110
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 6 22121222
Learmonth 7 32121222
Alice Springs 6 22220222
Gingin 7 32221222
Canberra 5 11220222
Hobart 6 22221222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 7 11242211
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 14 33333323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1121 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 8 G0
30 Nov 60 G3-G4
01 Dec 60 G3-G4
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 72 was issued on 27 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 28-Nov. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 at Casey.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for 29-Nov.
Two CME impacts are expected on 30-Nov,
with forecasted conditions expecting to reach G2. A third and
fourth CME that was first seen from 28/2036 UT has yet to be
analysed but likely has a geoeffective component. This CME may
combine with the previous two CMEs, in which case significant
geomagnetic storming is likely. If this third CME does combine
with the earlier two, then the time of impact may be earlier
than forecast. At this stage, the geomagnetic forecast conditions
are 30-Nov and 01-Nov are tentative only, and may change throughout
the analysis of the event.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal-fair Fair Poor
01 Dec Poor Poor Poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on Ut day 28-Nov were
generally normal, with some persistent sporadic-E during local
night hours. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be normal on 29-Nov. Degraded conditions are expected to commence
on 30-Nov due to anticipated geomagnetic activity, followed by
further degradations on 01-Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
30 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
01 Dec 40 Significant depressions expected
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 121 was issued on
28 November and is current for 28-30 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced in
the Australian region on UT day 28-Nov. Sporadic-E was observed
at Brisbane, Canberra. Hobart and Pert during local night and
dawn hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 20% enhanced on 29-Nov. MUFs are expected to become initially
depressed by 20% over 30-Nov due to two CME impacts, followed
by further depressions on 01-Dec due to another anticipated impact.
The extent of the depressions on 01-Dec is still being analysed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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