[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 30 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Nov was R0. The largest
flare for the day was a minor C6.4 flare at 29/0803UT from small
solar region AR3502(N11W51, beta). Solar region AR3500(S18W13,
beta-gamma) is currently the largest and most complex region
on the disk and is in slow overall decline, with some spot redevelopment
evident in the northern part of this region. Other regions are
small and stable. There are currently twelve numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be mostly
R0-R1, with the slight chance for isolated R2 level flare activity,
primarily due to AR3500. No new significantly Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. Localised coronal diming/plasma
motion is visible in SDO193 imagery at S10W15, near region AR3500
at 29/0618UT and 29/1525UT.A weak slow and narrow south west
directed CME is visible in LASCO C2 from 29/1325UT, which may
possibly be associated with this plasma motion, though disk/coronagraph
events times are poorly correlated. Assuming a correlation to
on disk activity this minor slow CME may have a very slight interaction
with the Earth's magnetosphere on 04-Dec. The solar wind speed
ranged between 460 and 363 km/s with a declining trend. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar
wind parameters are expected to become strongly enhanced over
30-Nov to 01 Dec with a sequence of CME arrivals expected during
this interval. A large isolated coronal hole is visible in the
eastern solar hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11112011
Cocos Island 1 11000010
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 5 12112122
Learmonth 4 21112012
Alice Springs 2 11101011
Gingin 3 11112012
Canberra 3 11112021
Hobart 4 22112011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 12223010
Casey 16 45412122
Mawson 12 23323233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1221 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 60 G3-G4
01 Dec 60 G3-G4
02 Dec 30 Initially G1-G2, then declining to G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 73 was issued on 29 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 29-Nov. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 at Casey. G3 to G4 geomagnetic
conditions are expected at times during the interval from the
second half of the UT day 30-Nov to 01-Dec due to the expected
arrival of a sequence of CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
01 Dec Fair Poor-fair Poor
02 Dec Fair-normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 29-Nov were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
initially normal on 30-Nov, becoming strongly degraded by the
end of the UT day and followed by further HF degradations on
01-02 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
01 Dec 70 About 25% below predicted monthly values
02 Dec 40 About 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 121 was issued on
28 November and is current for 28-30 Nov. ASWFC Preliminary HF
Communications Warning 122 was issued on 29 November and is current
for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near
predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced in the Australian region
on UT day 29-Nov. MUFs are expected to be initially near predicted
monthly values to 20% enhanced then becoming depressed 20 to
30% late in the UT day on 30-Nov. Further depressed ionospheric
conditions are expected for the interval 01-02 Dec due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity from recent CMEs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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