[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 27 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 28 10:31:13 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 187/140
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 182/135 182/135
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Nov was R0, with some C-class
level solar flares. There are currently eleven numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. Most regions have been either stable
or in decay in the previous 24 hours, with many of the larger
spots showing just small changes in their trailer spots. AR34500
(S18E11, beta-gamma) is currently the most magnetically complex
sunspot region and was responsible for the day's largest flare,
C6 at 27/1850 UT. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over
28-30 Nov.
A large filament erupted from 27/0520 UT in the solar
southwest. An associated CME was observed from 27/0724 UT and
is expected to arrive from 30/0600 UT +/- 8 hours. A faint partial
halo CME was observed in association with the C6 solar flare
from AR34500 in the northeast solar quadrant. A preliminary analysis
suggests this CME may arrive at Earth on early 01-Dec.
The solar wind speed on UT day 27-Nov was on a slight decline
and ranged between 504 and 405 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -5 nT. The solar wind
is expected to remain near background levels over 28-29 Nov, then
become disturbed on the first half of 30-Nov due to an anticipated
CME impact.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 11112212
Cocos Island 2 01111201
Darwin 4 11112212
Townsville 5 11112222
Learmonth 5 12112212
Alice Springs 4 11112202
Gingin 4 11212211
Canberra 4 02112112
Hobart 5 12212112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 12213211
Casey 19 45432322
Mawson 16 33333334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 4132 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 8 G0
29 Nov 8 G0
30 Nov 20 G0-G1, slight chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 72 was issued on 27 November
and is current for 30 Nov to 1 Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 27-Nov. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 28-29 Nov. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 30-Nov from 0600 UT +/- 8 hours, with a slight chance
for G2. If the CME arrives earlier than expected, some impacts
may be observed on late 29-Nov. Preliminary analysis shows a
second CME impact is possible early on 01-Dec and may induce
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 27-Nov were
generally normal. Normal HF conditions are expected over 28-29
Nov. Degraded conditions are possible in the second half of UT
day 30-Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov 125 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
29 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
30 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region on 27-Nov.
Sporadic-E was observed at Brisbane during local evening hours.
MUFs re expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15-20%
enhanced over 28-29 Nov. MUFs may become depressed by 10-20%
on 30-Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 12.6 p/cc Temp: 391000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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