[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 26 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 27 10:31:26 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Nov was low. Most of the
regions currently on disk are either stable or in slow decay.
Solar region AR3500(S18E26, beta-gamma-delta) is currently the
largest region on disk and is slowly decaying. The other solar
regions of note are, AR3492(N24W12, beta-gamma) which has been
stable, AR3490(N21W26,beta) and AR3502(N13W11, beta) which are
both in decline. Smaller solar region AR3499(S18W34, gamma) has
shown spot redistribution and slight growth of its intermediate
spots. There are currently eleven numbered solar regions on the
visible solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over
27-29 Nov. No significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
A narrow northward, non Earth directed CME was observed from
26/0836UT in LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind declined from 550
to 463km/sec over the UT day, as the influence of yesterdays
CME arrival declines. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(MF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +5 to -7 nT. Mild southward fluctuations in Bz were observed
during the period 26/00-07UT. The solar wind is expected to continue
to slowly decline. The ACE EPAM CME precursor channel has remained
flat over the past 24 hours, indicating the forecast arrival
of a minor CME associated with an M1 flare on 24-Nov is an Earth
miss, with the CME likely to have passed under the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 32312012
Cocos Island 2 21201010
Darwin 4 21212011
Townsville 9 -4312022
Learmonth 7 32312012
Alice Springs 5 22312011
Gingin 6 32311012
Canberra 6 32311012
Hobart 6 32311012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 32442011
Casey 25 55533223
Mawson 19 45433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 30 2244 5563
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 13 G0
28 Nov 10 G0
29 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Nov. In the Antarctic region G1 periods were
observed at Casey and Mawson, with G0 conditions at Casey. The
expected minor CME arrival on 26-Nov has failed to eventuate.
G0 conditions are expected for 27-29 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 26-Nov were
strongly degraded for middle to high latitudes. Normal HF conditions
are now expected for 27-29 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were depressed by
up to 50% during the local day on 26-Nov. Mild spread-F was observed
at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. Due to a lack
of overnight geomagnetic activity Australian regional MUFs now
are expected to be near normal for 27-29 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 541 km/sec Density: 17.2 p/cc Temp: 303000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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