[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 21 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 22 10:30:49 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 177/131 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Nov was R0. There are ten
numbered regions on the disk. The three larger and more complex
regions are AR3489(S16E23, beta-delta), AR3492(N17E57, beta-gamma)
and AR3498(S10W25, beta-gamma). Solar region AR3489 has shown
some recent decay. Solar region AR3492 has shown minor growth
in intermediate spots. Region AR3498 has shown fast growth over
the past 24 hours, though currently is not that large. Other
regions are currently smaller and stable. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 22-24 Nov. A solar filament located at N35W45
partially lifted off after 21/1900UT, but no CME appeared associated.
No new significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
An eastward non Earth directed CME was observed from 21/0048UT
in LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind environment on UT day 21-Nov
was moderately elevated as the Earth entered a minor coronal
hole wind stream from 21/0113UT, with wind speed increasing from
291-423 km/s over the UT day. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -13 nT. Three intervals of southward IMF
conditions were observed 21/0614-0729UT, 21/1100-1338UT and 21/1829-2210UT.
Solar wind conditions are expectedly to remain moderately enhanced
today. Another isolated small coronal hole is currently located
at N15E30.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 23333323
Cocos Island 10 13323322
Darwin 11 23332223
Townsville 12 23333223
Learmonth 12 23332323
Alice Springs 11 23332223
Gingin 13 23333323
Canberra 13 23433322
Hobart 14 23433323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 31 12536623
Casey 25 45543233
Mawson 20 33433335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0111 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 10 G0
23 Nov 8 G0
24 Nov 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21-Nov. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 at Casey and Mawson
and periods of G1 and G2 at Macquarie Island. The mild increase
in geomagnetic activity in the Australian region was due to a
minor coronal hole wind stream. Generally G0 conditions are expected
22-24 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were fair to normal
on 21-Nov, with mild degradations at middle to high latitudes.
Mild degradations may again be experienced after local dawn for
middle to high latitudes on 22-Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 75 Depressed 10 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 116 was issued on 21
November and is current for 22 Nov only. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on 21-Nov were variable with
some southern region sites depressed 15-20% during the local
day. Northern Australian regional MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values. Similar conditions are expected for today, with
southern Australian regional MUFs expected to be depressed 15-20%
on 22-Nov during the local day, then generally near predicted
monthly values for 22-24 Nov. Northern Australian region MUFs
are expected to remain near normal. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 13.9 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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