[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 22 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 23 10:31:24 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 190/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Nov was R0, although there
were several high-level C-class solar flares from AR3492 (N17E40,
beta-gamma). There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, however there is a large cluster of sunspots
in the solar northeast that are difficult to distinguish due
to their proximity to one another. Most of the sunspots in this
large cluster have shown some growth in their complexity over
the past 24 hours, including AR3490 (N16E30, beta-gamma), AR3491
(N10E34, alpha) and AR3495 (N24E31, alpha). All other sunspots
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 23-25 Nov.
Four CMEs were observed on 22-Nov, but none are considered to be
geoeffective. Two of these CMEs are considered to be farside events.
A large filament erupted in the solar southeast quadrant and was
associated with a CME from 22/0700 UT, but is expected to either
miss Earth completely or else weakly graze Earth, not causing
any significant activity. The fourth CME began from 22/2124 UT to
the south. At this stage this event is considered farside and not
geoeffective, although analysis will be ongoing to confirm this.
The solar wind environment was enhanced on 22-Nov due to coronal
hole activity. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) was +12 to -13 nT.
Bz was oriented southward for several periods of the UT day. A sharp increase
in the solar wind speed was observed at 22/0210 UT, although
this is attributed to coronal hole activity due to the stability
of the phi angle and decrease in density. Solar wind speeds ranged
between 594 to 440 km/s, and are currently near 500 km/s. The
solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced on 23-Nov
and then returning to background levels over 24-25 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 20 34344432
Cocos Island 14 33224430
Darwin 15 33334331
Townsville 17 34343332
Learmonth 22 43345432
Alice Springs 18 34344332
Gingin 25 43345532
Canberra 16 34343322
Hobart 18 34443332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 49 46665542
Casey 34 66444332
Mawson 51 36744554
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 0233 4533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 14 G0, slight chance G1
24 Nov 10 G0
25 Nov 6 G0
COMMENT: The general Australian geomagnetic conditions on UT
day 22-Nov were G0, although Learmonth ad Gingin observed a period
of G1. Other sites were at high-level G0 conditions. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated
period of G3 at Mawson. Planetary conditions observed two periods
of G1. Activity was mostly due to solar wind parameter Bz being
oriented southward for much of the day as a small coronal hole
impacting Earth. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally expected
over 23-25 Nov, although some isolated bouts of G1 are possible
as coronal hole activity dies down on 23-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Fair Fair
24 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Nov was
mildly degraded for most of the day. Sporadic-E was common throughout
the day. Conditions maye continue to be mildly degraded over
23-Nov, but are expected to begin to return to normal over 24-25
Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
24 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 117 was issued on
22 November and is current for 23-24 Nov. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 118 was issued on 22 November and is current for 23 Nov
only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Nov were
depressed by up to 20% for most of the day in the Australian
region. Sporadic-E was observed at Hobart, Canberra and Darwin
for much of the day. MUFs are expected to begin recovering to
normal conditions on 23-Nov, but may still be mildly depressed
by 10-15%. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 48200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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