[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 21 10:30:50 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0903UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Nov was R1 due to an M1.2
flare from AR3492(N18E65, beta). There are four numbered regions
on the disk and three unnumbered regions. Solar region AR3492
was recently numbered and part of a group of regions in the north
east quadrant with AR3490(N22E50, beta) and AR3491(N11E60, alpha).
AR3492 also produced six C class flares. Two of the unnumbered
regions are single alpha spots in the south east solar quadrant
at S18E80 and S13E76, the other a new pair of small spots which
have emerged at N05E38. Solar region AR3489(S15E35, beta) was
relatively flare quiet. Solar regions AR3492 and AR3489 are currently
growing. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 21-23 Nov.
No new significantly Earth directed CMEs have been observed.
Several CMEs were observed during the second half of the UT day
off the eastern solar limb. The solar wind environment on UT
day 20-Nov showed a possible weak indistinct shock signature
at 20/0109UT, with the IMF then subsequently becoming enhanced
and peaking at 20/1004UT. The solar wind speed ranged from 285-353
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7
to -6 nT. The weak enhancement of solar wind conditions may be
due to the expected arrival of the CME observed on 16-Nov. Solar
wind conditions may be moderately enhanced today, due to a combination
of possible weak CME activity and a minor coronal hole wind stream
from a small coronal hole in the north west solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11222212
Cocos Island 3 11121111
Darwin 4 11122112
Townsville 6 12222212
Learmonth 5 11122212
Alice Springs 4 01122211
Gingin 5 11122212
Canberra 5 11221212
Hobart 7 12321222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 11111101
Casey 19 44533222
Mawson 11 33322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0011 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 14 G0, slight chance of G1
22 Nov 10 G0
23 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Nov. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Casey. Generally G0 conditions are expected 21-23 Nov,
with a slight chance of an isolated G1 period on 21-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
21-23 Nov. Mild degradations may be experienced local night hours
and briefly after local dawn for middle to high latitudes on
21-Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values. Some southern
region sites were depressed 15-20% after local dawn this morning.
These depressions are not expected to persist. Australian regional
MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted monthly values
21-23 Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 38900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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