[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 19 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 20 10:31:15 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 18/2234UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Nov was R0 with no significant
solar flares. There are currently two sunspot regions on the
solar disk. AR3489 (S15E48, beta) has shown some growth over
the past day, but so far has remained quiet. AR3490 (N18E63,
beta-gamma) , which has produced M-class solar flares in previous
days, has now rotated mostly into view. While this sunspot region
has not shown much change in the past 24 hours it is currently
the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1 over 20-22 Nov.
Several CMEs were observed
on 19-Nov, but none are considered to be geoeffective. Four CMEs
were observed, all from farside prominence eruptions on the south,
southeast, northwest and north limbs.
The solar wind environment on UT day 19-Nov was indicative
of background conditions. The solar wind speed was steady
around 300-350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind environment
is expected to become enhanced on 20-Nov as we anticipate the
arrival of a CME that was first observed on 16-Nov. Enhancements
may continue onto 21-Nov, as connection to a small coronal hole
in the northern solar hemisphere is possible. Conditions may
begin to return to background levels by 22-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 1 10110000
Darwin 3 21111011
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 2 11111001
Alice Springs 1 01110001
Gingin 2 11111001
Canberra 3 12211011
Hobart 3 11211011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 01120010
Casey 14 24531122
Mawson 11 22222044
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 20 G1
21 Nov 14 G0, chance G1
22 Nov 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 69 was issued on 16 November
and is current for 19-20 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 19-Nov. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctica region,
with an isolated period of G1 at Casey. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are possible on 20-Nov due to the anticipated arrival of a weak
partial halo CME that was first seen on 16-Nov, followed by the
possible onset of a coronal hole wind stream. Conditions may
continue into 21-Nov but are expected to begin to ease by 22-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
during daylight hours, although middle and high latitudes had
some degradations during local night hours. HF communication
conditions are expected to become mildly degraded on 20-Nov due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Degradations are likely
to continue into 21-Nov, but are expected to begin to recover
by 22-Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
21 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
22 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 114 was issued on
18 November and is current for 19-20 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly
values. Sporadic-E was observed in Canberra and Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to become 10-20% degraded
on 20-Nov due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. MUFs depressions
of 10-15% may continue over 21-22 Nov, but are likely to recover
by the end of the period. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 18400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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