[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 18 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 19 10:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0542UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 1644UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.0 2234UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18-Nov reached R1, with three
M-class solar flares from a region beyond the eastern solar limb
that is not yet in view. Other than this new region, AR3489 (S15E62,
beta) is the only noteworthy region on the solar disk. AR3489
has shown some growth over the past 24 hours, but has remained
stable so far. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 19-21
Nov.
Several CMEs were observed on 18-Nov, although none are
considered to be geoeffective. All CMEs appear to originate from
close to the region that produced the M1 flares that is on the
eastern limb, not yet in view. From this area were at least three
distinct and narrow CMEs, followed by at least four successive
CMEs that are difficult to distinguish due to their concurrence.
No other significant CMEs were observed.
The solar wind parameters were indicative of background
conditions on UT day 18-Nov. The solar wind speed was steady near
300 km/s for the day. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind is expected to
remain near background levels for the first half of 19-Nov,
then increase due to an expected impact from a recent
partial halo CME that was first observed on 16-Nov. The
solar wind may see a further increase by 21-Nov due to a
small coronal hole that is currently crossing the solar central
meridian.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 18/0940UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 12100011
Cocos Island 1 02100000
Darwin 2 12100011
Townsville 3 02100022
Learmonth 1 01100001
Alice Springs 2 12100002
Gingin 1 11100011
Canberra 2 02000012
Hobart 2 12100012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 01000011
Casey 7 23321112
Mawson 5 11101133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0001 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 18 G1, slight chance G2
20 Nov 20 G1, slight chance G2
21 Nov 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 69 was issued on 16 November
and is current for 19-20 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctica regions on UT day 18-Nov.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for the first half of
UT day 19-Nov. A recent partial halo CME is expected to arrive
either late 19-Nov or early 20-Nov and induce G1 geomagnetic
conditions with a chance for isolated periods of G2. CME effects
are expected to continue into 20-Nov, and then by 21-Nov Earth
may connect with a coronal hole wind stream to possibly induce
G1 conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Fair Normal-fair Fair
20 Nov Fair Fair Fair
21 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
during daylight hours, although were degraded during local dawn
and night hours due to heavy sporadic E at most latitudes. HF
communication conditions are expected to be normal for the first
half of UT day 19-Nov but may become degraded due to expected
geomagnetic activity. Degradations may continue over 20-21 Nov,
particularly at local night hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
20 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
21 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 114 was issued on
18 November and is current for 19-20 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 18-Nov were near predicted
monthly values. Sporadic E was present during local dawn and
night hours at most sites, especially in Brisbane, Hobart and
Perth. HF conditions were generally degraded during these times.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on the
first half of UT day 19-Nov, but tending to 10-20% depressed
by the end of the day due to anticipated geomagnetic activity
from a recent CME. MUFs may be 10-20% depressed over 20-21 Nov
due to the CME induced geomagnetic activity followed by possible
coronal hole geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E is expected to
persist during local night hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 55400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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