[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 17 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 17 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 18 10:31:01 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Nov was R0, with no significant
solar flares or radio blackouts. There are currently four numbered
active regions on the solar disk, although only two of these
have any sunspots. AR3486 (S08W70, beta) has been stable, but
is soon to rotate over the western solar limb and out of view.
AR3489 (S15E77, beta) is just rotating into view on the eastern
solar limb, but has so far been mostly stable. AR3489 is currently
the only noteworthy sunspot region. Solar activity is expected
to be mostly R0 over 18-20 Nov, although low level R1 flares
may be possible from AR3489.
Several CMEs were observed on 17-Nov, but none are considered
geoeffective. Most CMEs that were observed were due to
prominence eruptions or else on the farside of the
Sun, and most were either very narrow or very slow. There is
an unstable filament near S10E22, and while it has not yet erupted
it will be monitored closely.
The solar wind parameters on UT day 17-Nov were generally
indicative of background conditions. The solar wind speed
was on a slight declining trend and ranged between 388 to 294 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -3 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels on 18-Nov. An increase to the solar wind
parameters is expected on either late 19-Nov or early 20-Nov due
to the arrival of a weak partial halo CME that was first seen on 16-Nov.
There are several very small and faint coronal holes over the
solar disk that may also cause some mild increases to the solar
wind speed over 18-20 Nov, although it is not likely to be significant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 10000211
Cocos Island 2 20000210
Darwin 1 10000111
Townsville 1 00000111
Learmonth 1 00000211
Alice Springs 1 00000201
Gingin 2 10000300
Canberra 0 00100100
Hobart 2 01110210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 8 33321211
Mawson 11 22212442
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1022 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 10 G0
19 Nov 20 G0, chance G1
20 Nov 20 G1, slight chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 69 was issued on 16 November
and is current for 19-20 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian and Antarctica regions on UT day 17-Nov.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are mostly expected over 18-19 Nov.
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected either late on 19-Nov
or on early UT day 20-Nov due to the anticipated arrival of a
weak partial halo CME that was first seen on 16-Nov, with a slight
chance of isolated G2.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
20 Nov Fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 17-Nov, although sporadic-E may have degraded conditions for
low latitude regions. Generally normal HF communication conditions
are expected over 18-19 Nov, with some mild degradations during
local night hours. Stronger degradations are expected by 20-Nov
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
19 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
20 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values to 20-30% depressed.
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted values, although there were
depressions observed after local dawn hours and also during daylight
hours for the southern Australian region. The reason behind
the depressions may be due to the lack of sunspots on the visible
disk at the moment, but this is not expected to continue significantly.
Sporadic-E was observed at Brisbane, Cocos Islands and Norfolk
Island during local night hours, with Brisbane being heavily affected.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% depressed
over 18-20 Nov during local dawn hours. Further depressions up
to 20-30% are possible from 20-Nov due to expected geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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