[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 16 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 17 10:31:13 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 120/72 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Nov was R0. There are currently
only two numbered regions on the disk. Yesterday's unnumbered
region has decayed. There is currently no solar region of significance
on the solar disk. Solar region AR3486(S08W57, beta) is declining
in area, with decay evident in its trailer spots. Solar region
AR3488(N29E54) is now spotless. Very small solar region AR3487(S17W72,
beta) is in decay as it approaches the south west solar limb.
A new solar region is just behind the south eastern solar limb
at solar latitude S13. No spots are yet visible. From SDO094
imagery, this region produced a minor C4.8 flare at 16/2220UT.
Though still behind the limb, at this stage the solar region
does not seem to be large. Solar flare activity is expected to
be at the R0 level for 17-19 Nov. Two minor solar filament eruptions
have been observed. The first is from a westward section of a
long thin filament, with the erupting section centred at N25W05.
The second was a smaller filament located near N15W18. The filament
eruptions happened in succession during the interval 16/02-04UT.
Subsequent CMEs followed, with an initial westward moderate speed
CME with moderate expansion followed by a more north west CME,
which may be more a shockwave event, rather than mass ejection.
The first CME has been modelled to arrive at 19/1300UT +/- 12hrs.
The second CME was very slow and has been modelled to arrive
at 20/1000UT +/- 12hrs. The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Nov
was steady and ranged between 371 to 469 km/s and is currently
at 396km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -5 nT. The IMF Bz component fluctuated mildly southward
over the UT day on 16-Nov. A small narrow coronal hole is visible
straddling the solar equator at solar longitude W22. This small
hole may sustain mildly elevated solar wind speed conditions
over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22213211
Cocos Island 5 11212311
Darwin 6 22213211
Townsville 7 22213221
Learmonth 8 22213312
Alice Springs 6 12213211
Gingin 5 21212212
Canberra 6 12213221
Hobart 6 12213211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Nov :
Macquarie Island 8 12324200
Casey 20 45532212
Mawson 18 23333335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 2022 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 10 G0
18 Nov 10 G0
19 Nov 25 G1, slight chance of G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 69 was issued on 16 November
and is current for 19-20 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 16-Nov. Periods of
G1 were observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 conditions were observed
at Macquarie Island. G0 conditions are expected for 17-18 Nov,
with G1 conditions expected for 19-20 Nov due to recent minor
solar filament eruptions. A small coronal hole wind stream may
mildly elevate geomagnetic activity over 17-18 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 16-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be normal for 17-18 Nov. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be
experienced during local nigh hours during 19-20 Nov at mid to
high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Nov were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Mild spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours.
Mild depressions of 15% were observed after dawn at some southern
Australian sites. These depressions are not expected to persist.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values for 17-19 Nov.
Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected for the southern Australian
region during local night hours during 19-20 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 96600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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