[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 15 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 16 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 118/70 116/68
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Nov was R0. There are currently
only three numbered regions and one unnumbered region on the
solar disk. There is currently no solar region of significance
on the solar disk. Solar region AR3486(S08W46, beta) is a small
to medium sized bipolar group and AR3487(S17W61, beta) is a smaller
region, consisting of only small spots. The intermediate spots
of AR3486, currently the largest region on disk, showed some
redistribution towards the leader and trailer spots in the past
24 hours, with fewer intermediate spots now visible. Solar region
AR3488(N29E66, alpha) has almost completely decayed, with only
a single tiny spot just visible. The unnumbered region consists
of two small spots located at N13W21. The largest flare in the
past 24 hours was a minor C7.6 flare at 15/1212UT from solar
region AR3485 which has rotated off disk over the south west
solar limb. Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R0
level for 16-18 Nov. Numerous CMEs were observed on 15-Nov, the
majority from solar prominence/farside activity. The most impressive
was a large farside CME from 15/0712UT from behind the north
east solar limb. Yesterday's filament eruption from 14/2116UT
located at S50W70 produced a narrow steeply southward directed
CME which is considered unlikely to be geoeffective. This CME
was subsequently obscured by overlap with a larger farside CME.
Another solar filament also located well west at S30W70 erupted
from 15/1409UT. A data gap in LASCO images from 15/1537-1936UT
prevented confirmation of an associated CME, but the far west
longitude location suggests that any associated CME is very likely
to miss the Earth. Small localised diming in SDO193 imagery at
15/0537UT located at approximately S10W20 could not be correlated
to the CME activity. The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Nov was
steady and ranged between 356 to 416 km/s and is currently at
398km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -6 nT. The IMF Bz component fluctuated mildly southward
over the UT day on 15-Nov. A minor coronal hole wind stream may
very mildly enhance the solar wind speed on 16-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 21223332
Cocos Island 5 21211230
Darwin 8 21213322
Townsville 9 21223332
Learmonth 9 21223332
Alice Springs 9 21223332
Gingin 10 21213342
Canberra 8 21223321
Hobart 8 22223321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 14 11235421
Casey 21 45433233
Mawson 25 43323463
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1101 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 12 G0
17 Nov 8 G0
18 Nov 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Nov. Isolated periods of G1 were observed
at Macquarie Island and Casey. An isolated period of G2 was observed
at Mawson. G0 conditions are expected for 16-18 Nov. A minor
coronal hole wind stream may mildly elevate geomagnetic activity
on 16-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
on 15-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be normal for 16-18 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 113 was issued on
14 November and is current for 15-16 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 15-Nov were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Mild spread F was observed at
Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values for 16-18
Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 75100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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