[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 14 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Wed Nov 15 10:31:45 EST 2023

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    2305UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 124/77

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   124/77             122/75             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Nov was R1, with one impulsive 
M1 solar flare at 14/2305 UT from AR3485 (S20W75, alpha). There 
are currently six numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, 
however four of these are currently near the western solar limb 
and mostly obscured from view. AR3486 (S08W31, beta) has shown 
some minor growth in complexity and AR3487 (S17W46, beta) has 
decayed. Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a chance for 
R1 over 15-17 Nov, primarily due to AR3486. 

Several CMEs were observed on 14-Nov. These CMEs originated
 either near the western solar limb or on the farside and 
are not considered geoeffective. A filament was observed
 erupting from 14/2116 UT in the southwest solar quadrant,
 but no coronagraph images are available at this 
stage to confirm if an associated CME has occurred or not. 

The solar wind speed on UT day 14-Nov was on a general declining 
trend as CME impacts continue to wane and ranged between 489 
to 350 km/s, and is currently near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +13 to -6 nT. The solar wind environment is expected 
to generally stay near background levels over 15-17 Nov, although 
mild enhancements are possible at the beginning of the period. 
Enhancements may come from a possible weak glancing blow from 
a recent CME and also a small equatorial coronal hole wind stream, 
but any enhancements are expected to have passed by 17-Nov.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22112321
      Cocos Island         4   22112210
      Darwin               5   22112211
      Townsville           6   22122222
      Learmonth            8   32112322
      Alice Springs        6   22112321
      Gingin               8   32112420
      Canberra             6   22111321
      Hobart               6   22112321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     6   12012410
      Casey               18   44434321
      Mawson              11   33123332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15   5411 3322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov    14    G0, slight chance G1
16 Nov    16    G0
17 Nov     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the 
Australian and Antarctica regions on UT day 14-Nov. Mostly G0 
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-17 Nov, with a small 
chance of isolated periods of G1 late on UT day 15-Nov due to 
a possible weak glancing blow from a recent CME in combination 
with a small equatorial coronal hole wind stream. Any mild disturbances 
may continue into 16-Nov but are not expected to cause any significant 
geomagnetic activity.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Fair           Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal, 
with some mild degradations to most latitudes during local night 
hours on UT day 14-Nov. HF radio communication conditions are 
expected to be normal during daylight hours, although some mild 
degradations may continue in the local night hours over 15-17 
Nov.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Nov   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      130
Nov      100
Dec      98

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov   120    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
16 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
17 Nov   115    Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 113 was issued on 
14 November and is current for 15-16 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-Nov were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Sporadic-E was 
observed at most Australian region sites for a 2-3 hour period 
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
values to 20% enhanced over 15-17 Nov. Some mild degradations 
to HF radio may be observed during local night hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:   15.7 p/cc  Temp:    37400 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au