[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 12 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 13 10:31:16 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Nov was at the R0 level.
A new solar region AR3486(S08W06, beta-gamma) has rapidly emerged
over the past 24 hours, though the mixed magnetic polarity spots
in this region are currently very small. Solar region AR3477(S15W73,
beta) that produced yesterday's R1 (M1) flare is about to rotate
off disk. Solar region AR3483(N10W61, beta-gamma) has shown growth
in its trailer spots, but with a reduction in intermediate spots.
Minor solar regions AR3484(S15W57, beta-gamma) and AR3485(S19W48,
beta) have shown growth with AR3484 developing small mixed polarity
spots in its trailer region. Solar region AR3484 produced the
largest X-ray flare for the day, an R0 (C8.4) flare at 12/0441UT.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. A 15 degree long solar filament located at S10W50
erupted at 12/0541UT, though no CME appeared to follow the filament
eruption. Another filament eruption located at N35W70 erupted
from 12/0938UT, with a narrow north west directed CME following.
No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The north west
directed CME which followed the filament located at N35W70 has
been modelled as an Earth miss. A westward CME was observed in
LASCO C2 from 12/1612UT but did not appear to be associated with
on disk activity and at this stage is presumed to be a farside/west
limb event. The solar wind speed on UT day 12-Nov ranged from
438 to 600km/sec, with a shock in the solar wind from the 09-Nov
CME observed at 12/0531UT. An interval of mildly (-5nT) southward
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions was observed from
12/0531-12/0917UT. After 12/1100UT the Bz component of the IMF
swung northwards along with a gradual increase in total field
to 11nT by 12/2032UT. Overall the post shock arrival IMF enhancement
and southward direction of the IMF were only slight. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the
north-south IMF component range was 9 to -6 nT. Three small coronal
holes are visible in SDO211 imagery centered at N05W05, S20W40
and N50W35.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 12422213
Cocos Island 8 12322213
Darwin 8 12322223
Townsville 12 22433223
Learmonth 13 12433224
Alice Springs 9 12422213
Gingin 8 12322213
Canberra 9 12422113
Hobart 9 12422113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 13 12533103
Casey 14 34432113
Mawson 11 22442212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1110 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 13 G0
14 Nov 10 G0
15 Nov 14 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 68 was issued on 9 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-Nov. G0-G1 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. The induced geomagnetic
activity following the anticipated CME arrival was less than
forecast. A weak (22nT) impulse observed at 12/0612UT, but subsequent
geomagnetic activity remained below G1. Minor solar wind streams
from small coronal holes may slightly increase geomagnetic activity
on 13-Nov. There is a light chance of a weak glancing blow from
a slow CME on 15-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Generally fair to normal HF propagation conditions were
observed on 12-Nov. The CME arrival only induced mild geomagnetic
activity. Normal HF conditions now expected for the next few
days. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 112 was
issued on 11 November and is current for 12-13 Nov. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 12-Nov
were near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Spread F
was observed during local night hours at Hobart. The CME arrival
induced only mild geomagnetic activity and Australian region
MUFs are now generally expected to remain near predicted monthly
values, with some southern Australian region sites depressed
15% after local dawn this morning. These mild depressions are
not expected to persist. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 86600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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