[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 14 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 126/79 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Nov was R0, with no significant
radio blackouts or solar flares. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk, although many of these regions
are soon to rotate over the western solar limb and out of sight.
AR3486 (S08W20, beta) has shown some minor growth over the past
24 hours. A new small region has grown near S13W34, numbered
as AR3487. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay, and there are no sunspot regions in the eastern hemisphere
today. Solar activity is expected to be R0 with a chance for
R1 over 14-16 Nov.
No new CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery
on UT day 13-Nov.
The solar wind parameters were declining to
near background levels over the UT day until 1630 UT when a small
increase was observed. the Solar wind speed ranged between 384
km/s to 475 km/s and is currently near 440 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +14 to -8 nT. The solar wind parameter
was oriented southward for a period at the beginning of the UT
day, as CME impacts wane, although at time of writing Bz has
been oriented northward since the small disturbance at 1630 UT.
Solar wind is expected to continue its trend to background levels
on 14-Nov, but an increase is possible by late 15-Nov to early
16-Nov as a small coronal hole wind stream is expected to connect
with Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 32133311
Cocos Island 8 31123311
Darwin 9 32133311
Townsville 11 321333--
Learmonth 10 32233312
Alice Springs 10 32233311
Gingin 9 31123322
Canberra 7 22123221
Hobart 7 32123211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 23115310
Casey 19 54433222
Mawson 23 65323321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 0043 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 10 G0
15 Nov 14 G0
16 Nov 16 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Nov, while G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctica region. Planetary conditions observed
a period of G1, likely due to waning CME impacts and solar wind
parameter Bz being oriented southward for a sustained period
of time. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-16
Nov, with a possible isolated period of G1 on 16-Nov due to expected
coronal hole activity. There is a small chance of a weak glancing
blow from a recent CME on 15-Nov, but this is not expected to
cause any significant activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions were generally normal
in low and middle latitudes, with some degradations at high latitudes
during local night hours on UT day 13-Nov. HF radio conditions
are expected to recover to mostly normal by 15-Nov, although
some mild degradations are possible at high latitudes on 16-Nov
due to possible geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole. .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values with 15-25% enhancements
15 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values with 15-25% enhancements
16 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Nov were near predicted monthly values, although
depressions of 15% were observed in the southern regions while
enhancements of 25% were observed in the northern regions. Sporadic-E
was observed at Canberra, Hobart and Perth during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to return to near predicted monthly
values for the whole of the Australian region over 14-16 Nov,
with the enhancements of 15-25% in the northern regions is likely
to continue in local daylight hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 98700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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