[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 12 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 1730UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Nov was at the R1 level
due to an M1.2 flare from AR3477(S15W62, beta). This region may
now be showing some decline in its trailer spots, but limb foreshortening
is beginning to impede spot analysis as the region approaches
the south western solar limb. The other region of note, AR3483(N10W48,
beta-gamma) has increased in magnetic complexity and shown growth
in intermediate spots and in its large leader spot. AR3477 also
produced 5 C class flares. AR3483 produced 6 C class flares with
the largest a C7.9 at 11/1830UT. Two other minor solar regions
AR3484(S15W44, beta) and AR3485(S19W35, beta) which both consist
of a number of small spots are showing growth. The eastern solar
hemisphere is currently devoid of spots. There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk, with
two minor numbered regions decaying and a new very small unnumbered
region emerging at S11W30. A section of solar filament located
at N45E05 lifted off at 10/1958UT, but no CME was able to be
correlated with this event. Yesterday's south west directed CME
which has been associated with localised plasma motion in the
solar south west quadrant at S15W30, has been modelled showing
a slow CME to weakly arrive at the Earth on mid 15-Nov. Another
filament section located at N40W35 lifted off at 11/0609UT, associated
with a very slow narrow north west directed CME, which is modelled
as an Earth miss. The ACE solar wind speed on UT day 11-Nov declined
steadily from 568km/sec to 460km/sec as coronal hole wind stream
influences declined. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 3 nT and the north-south IMF component range was
2 to -2 nT. The IMF Bt was quite weak over the past 24 hours.
There is no sign yet of the anticipated CME arrival from the
09-Nov halo CME associated with a partial filament eruption/C2
flare activity. The ACE EPAM CME precursor low energy ion channel
is still showing an increasing trend implying the CME is still
on the way, though any induced geomagnetic activity may be possibly
weaker. The CME solar wind shock followed by enhanced solar wind
parameters remains expected during the first half of 12-Nov.
Two small coronal holes are visible to the west of the solar
central meridian centered at S15W30 and N50W20.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 10100001
Darwin 2 21100011
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 2 21100011
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 3 21110111
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 2 12110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 12110000
Casey 13 44421112
Mawson 9 33421120
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1322 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 35 G1-G2, chance of G3
13 Nov 20 G1, chance G2
14 Nov 14 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 68 was issued on 9 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region and Antarctic region on UT
day 11-Nov. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected for 12-Nov,
with a slight chance of G3 conditions due to the anticipated
arrival of a halo CME first observed on 09-Nov. This CME arrival
was expected from late in the UT day on 11-Nov but has yet to
eventuate. Solar wind streams from two small coronal holes may
slightly add to geomagnetic activity on 13-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
13 Nov Normal Fair Poor-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions were observed on 11-Nov.
Degraded conditions are expected on 12 Nov for middle to high
latitudes due to geomagnetic activity, as a result of the anticipated
arrival of a halo CME first observed 09-Nov. This CME has yet
to arrive. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
13 Nov 80 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 112 was
issued on 11 November and is current for 12-13 Nov. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 11-Nov
were near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. Ionospheric
conditions during the local day on 12-Nov are now expected to
be normal. Ionospheric propagation conditions are expected to
become degraded tonight for the southern Australian region. Depressions
of 15-30% are possible from late in the UT day on 12-Nov (after
local dawn 13-Nov) and on 13 Nov as a result of expected geomagnetic
activity, with the anticipated arrival of a halo CME first observed
09-Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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