[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 10 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 11 10:31:24 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Nov was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. The two more
notable solar regions are AR3483(N10W34, beta) and AR3477(S15W46,
beta). Solar region AR3483 has shown growth and spot redistribution,
and AR3477 has shown minor development in its trailer spots.
Other regions are currently relatively small. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 11-13 Nov. The recent
minor solar proton enhancement peaked at 2.7PFU at 10/0010UT.
Minor localised plasma motion has been observed in SDO 304 imagery
at S20W25 during the period 10/10-13UT and at S20W45 during the
period 10/13-16UT. From GONG El Teide H-alpha imagery a 10 degree
long filament has partially lifted off the disk located just
to the southeast of region AR3477 at S20W45, during the interval
10/12-17UT. A very narrow equatorial westward CME was observed
in LASCO C2 from 10/1200UT which is not considered significant.
However, the latest available LASCO C2 image shows an emerging
southwest CME from 10/2012UT, which may be associated with the
small filament eruption if the CME is very slow. Further analysis
will be conducted as additional space based coronagraph images
become available. The ACE solar wind speed on UT day 10-Nov was
initially elevated near 690 km/s then declining to around 580km/sec.
There is currently a disparity between the ACE and DISCOVR solar
wind observational satellites. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was 4 to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to initially
further decline on 11-Nov, then is expected to increase late
11-12 Nov due to the anticipated arrival of the halo CME first
observed on 09-Nov associated with a partial filament eruption/C2
flare activity. The ACE EPAM CME precursor low energy ion plot
is currently only showing a slight rising trend, perhaps suggesting
a later arrival.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 23112112
Cocos Island 3 22112100
Darwin 5 22112112
Townsville 7 23113122
Learmonth 7 23123202
Alice Springs 5 22113102
Gingin 6 22122212
Canberra 6 23212112
Hobart 7 23212212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 23324111
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 21 34433235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2232 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 35 G1-G2, chance of G3
12 Nov 35 G1-G2, chance of G3
13 Nov 14 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 68 was issued on 9 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on 10-Nov. G0-G1 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
from mid to late 11-Nov and on 12-Nov, with a slight chance of
G3 conditions due to the anticipated arrival of a halo CME first
observed on 09-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
12 Nov Normal Fair Fair-poor
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 10-Nov. Degraded conditions are expected from late 11-Nov
and on 12 Nov for middle to high latitudes due to geomagnetic
activity, as a result of the anticipated arrival of a halo CME
first observed 09-Nov. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-35%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values, depression of
15-30% possible late in UT day.
12 Nov 80 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Nov were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region. Sporadic E was observed at times at Cocos
Island, Darwin and Niue. Spread F was observed at Perth during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values for most of the UT day 11-Nov. Depressions of 15-30% are
possible from late in the UT day on 11-Nov and on 12 Nov as a
result of expected geomagnetic activity, with the anticipated
arrival of a halo CME first observed 09-Nov. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 476 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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