[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 10 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Nov was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3483 (N10W23,
beta) has again shown rapid development over the UT day, but
has reduced in magnetic complexity. AR3477 (S15W35, beta), AR3481
(N23W18, beta) and AR3484 (S15W19, alpha) have shown minor development,
while all other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Nov.
A partial filament lift-off was observed from around 09/1030UT
near S10W15 in H-alpha and SDO imagery, extending as far north
as N35W20. A subsequent halo CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A
coronagraph imagery from around 09/1200UT. Modelling indicates
a CME impact late on 11-Nov to early on 12-Nov, at G1-G2 levels
with a slight chance of G3. An enhancement in the 10 MeV proton
flux is currently underway at time of writing. At this stage,
there is a chance of an S1 proton event on 10-Nov, with conditions
likely easing to background S0 levels over 11-12 Nov. The solar
wind speed on UT day 09-Nov was slightly elevated and near 500
km/s, although this is currently difficult to analyse due to
discrepancies between solar wind observational satellites. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component range was 4 to -4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to decline to near background levels over
10 Nov, but with an expected increase over 11-12 Nov due to the
arrival of the halo CME first observed 09-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 32212232
Cocos Island 6 22211231
Darwin 7 22212232
Townsville 13 44212233
Learmonth 9 32222232
Alice Springs 7 22212232
Gingin 11 32322242
Canberra 8 22312123
Hobart 9 23322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 23342222
Casey 28 45632243
Mawson 27 33434364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 65 (Active)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Hobart 71 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 14 2423 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 8 G0
11 Nov 35 G1-G2, chance of G3
12 Nov 35 G1-G2, chance of G3
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 68 was issued on 9 November
and is current for 11-13 Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region. G0-G2 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic activity is expected
on 10-Nov. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-12
Nov, with a slight chance of G3 due to the anticipated arrival
of a halo CME first observed on 09-Nov. The CME impact is expected
to arrive between late on 11-Nov to early on 12-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
12 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 09-Nov. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected on 10-Nov.
Degraded conditions are expected over 11-12 Nov due to geomagnetic
activity, as a result of the anticipated arrival of a halo CME
first observed 09-Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
12 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 09-Nov were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region, with enhancements of up to 15% during
local day hours. Sporadic E was observed at Townsville, Niue,
Norfolk Island and Darwin during local night hours. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values on 10-Nov. Depressions
of 15-30% are possible over 11-12 Nov as a result of expected
geomagnetic activity, with the anticipated arrival of a halo
CME first observed 09-Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 694 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 273000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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