[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 08 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 9 10:31:02 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Nov was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3483 (N10W09,
gamma-delta) has shown rapid development over the UT day, while
all other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 09-11 Nov. No
geoeffective CMEs were observed on 08-Nov. A filament eruption
was observed in the northwest quadrant, visible in H-alpha imagery
from 08/0600UT near N15W80. This is associated with a westward
CME, although modelling indicates that this CME is not geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 08-Nov was elevated, ranging from
650 to 750 km/s, and is currently near 690 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south
IMF component range was 5 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 09-11 Nov, but with a downward trend
towards background levels due to waning coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 23222232
Cocos Island 9 23221332
Darwin 8 23221223
Townsville 8 3322221-
Learmonth 12 33223332
Alice Springs 8 23221232
Gingin 12 33222342
Canberra 9 23222232
Hobart 10 23331232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 23341232
Casey 34 56642233
Mawson 34 35543364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gingin 128 (Severe storm)
Canberra 137 (Severe storm)
Hobart 152 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 4421 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 11 G0
10 Nov 8 G0
11 Nov 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region. G0-G2 conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
G0 geomagnetic activity is expected over 09-11 Nov as coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 08-Nov. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
09-11 Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Nov were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 09-11 Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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