[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 8 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 142/96
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 7-Nov was at the R0 level.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR3479 (N22W57, beta) and newly appeared region,
AR3483 (N10E04, gamma), showed strong sunspot development over
the UT day, but both regions remain small. AR3477 (S15W08, beta-gamma)
remains the largest sunspot region on the solar disk but appears
mostly stable. All other sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 8-10 Nov. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed on 7-Nov. A southeast directed CME is visible
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 07/1200UT. There is no visible
on disk activity associated with this CME and it is considered
a far side event and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed declined
gradually over 7-Nov, ranging from 766 km/s to around 581 km/s.
The solar wind speed over 7-Nov is difficult to analyse due to
discrepancies between solar wind observational satellites. The
solar wind speed is currently elevated at around 700 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and
the north-south IMF component range was +8 to -6 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 8-9 Nov, with
a gradual decline, due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. The solar wind speed is expected to be well in
decline and near background levels by 10-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 43213233
Cocos Island 7 32212222
Darwin 11 33213233
Townsville 13 43213233
Learmonth 16 52223333
Alice Springs 11 33213233
Gingin 14 43223333
Canberra 11 33213233
Hobart 10 33213223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 22 34335433
Casey 31 55633333
Mawson 47 64444474
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 101 (Major storm)
Hobart 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 36 4555 2464
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 15 G0
09 Nov 11 G0
10 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 67 was issued on 6 November
and is current for 7-8 Nov. Planetary geomagnetic conditions
on UT day 7-Nov reached the G1 level due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
mostly observed in the Australian region, with an isolated period
of G1 at Learmonth. G1 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with a period of G2 at Casey and periods of G2-G3 at
Mawson. G0 geomagnetic activity is expected over 8-10 Nov as
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 7-Nov were
mostly poor throughout the first third of the UT day across all
latitudes, with particularly poor conditions in the southern
hemisphere. Conditions were fair to normal at low and mid latitudes
for the remainder of the UT day, whilst conditions at high latitudes
remained mostly poor. Mostly normal conditions are expected at
low and mid latitudes over 8-10 Nov, with normal to fair conditions
expected at high latitudes. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 7-Nov were depressed by up to 20% in the northern
Australian region and by up to 25% in the southern Australian
region, with the most significant depressions occurring during
local day. MUFs approached predicted monthly values by the end
of the UT day. Sporadic E was observed during local night at
Hobart, Perth, Townsville, Learmonth, Norfolk Island and Cocos
Islands. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Perth during local
night. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 8-10 Nov as geomagnetic activity wanes, with a chance of
enhancements of up to 15% on 9-10 Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 234000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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