[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 06 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 7 10:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 6-Nov was at the R0 level,
with a declining background X-ray flux. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3477 (S15E05,
beta) is the most significant sunspot group on the solar disk
and showed trailer movement during the UT day. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 7-9 Nov. No geoeffective CMEs were
observed on 6-Nov. A southwest directed CME is visible in SOHO
and STEREO-A imagery from 06/0736UT. An associated filament eruption
is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 06/0639UT
at around S30 on the western limb. Modelling indicates this CME
has no geoeffective component. The solar wind speed increased
over 6-Nov, ranging from 381 km/s to around 620 km/s. The solar
wind speed over 6-Nov is difficult to analyse due to discrepancies
between solar wind observational satellites. Solar wind speed
is currently elevated, with speeds between 500-700 km/s. The
increase over 6-Nov is likely due to high speed wind stream effects
from a large coronal hole entering a geoeffective position. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 18 nT
and the north-south IMF component range was +14 to -14 nT. Solar
wind parameter Bz was oriented southward from the beginning of
the day until around 06/0350UT. IMF conditions then trended towards
background levels over 6-Nov. The Solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 7-9 Nov due to ongoing coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 21 34442443
Cocos Island 16 24332433
Darwin 16 24432333
Townsville 19 24442343
Learmonth 20 34432434
Alice Springs 18 34432433
Gingin 24 34432544
Canberra 21 24452343
Hobart 27 35552343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 30 35453453
Casey 40 46644444
Mawson 46 45553466
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 65 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 43
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 75 3206 6884
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 26 G1
08 Nov 14 G0, chance of G1
09 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: Planetary geomagnetic conditions on UT day 6-Nov reached
the G2 level due to ongoing effects from CME impacts on 5-Nov.
G0 geomagnetic conditions were mostly observed in the Australian
region, with several periods of G1 observed at Hobart and isolated
periods of G1 observed at Canberra and Gingin. Conditions were
at the G2 level in the Antarctic region, with the exception of
Macquarie Island which only recorded G1 conditions. G1 geomagnetic
activity is expected on 7-Nov, due to a combination of ongoing
CME impact effects and high speed wind stream effects from a
coronal hole which has recently entered a geoeffective position.
G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 8-Nov due
to the above reasons. G0 conditions are expected on 9-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Poor Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 6-Nov were
mostly poor throughout the day across all latitudes. Conditions
were particularly poor in the southern hemisphere, with some
periods of fair conditions observed in the northern hemisphere.
Fair to poor conditions are expected over 7-Nov, with poor conditions
more likely in the southern hemisphere, due to ongoing geomagnetic
activity. Propagation conditions are expected to recover over
8-9 Nov, with mostly normal conditions expected at low to mid
latitudes and normal to fair conditions expected at high latitudes.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 50 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Nov 80 0 to 15% below predicted monthly values
09 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 110 was issued on 5
November and is current for 5-7 Nov. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 111 was issued on 6 November and is current for 6-7 Nov.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 6-Nov were depressed by up to 45%, with the most significant
depressions occurring during local day. Sporadic E was observed
during local night at Hobart, Brisbane, Townsville, Darwin and
Cocos Islands. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night.
Ongoing geomagnetic activity means that depressions of 10-30%
are expected to continue across the Australian region over 7-Nov.
Conditions are expected to improve towards predicted monthly
values over 8-9 Nov, with MUFs expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% depressed on 8-Nov and near predicted monthly
values on 9-Nov. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 19.5 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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