[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 05 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 6 10:31:16 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 1143UT possible lower European
M1.7 1432UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity R0-R1 chance R2 R0-R1 chance R2 R0-R1 chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 152/107 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Nov was R1, with two low-level
M-class solar flares. Both solar flares were produced by AR3480
(S08E42, beta) but both events were impulsive and did not cause
any significant radio blackouts. There are currently nine numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk, although many of these are
either rotating off the limb or have decayed into plage. AR3477
(S15E19, beta) has shown some growth over the past day but have
not produced any significant flares. AR3480 has not shown much
change in its configuration in the past day. All other sunspots
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be R0-R1 with a slight chance for R2 over 06-08 Nov.
A slow CME was observed off the solar southwest limb from 05/0400 UT that
was associated with a prominence eruption, but this event is
not expected to be geoeffective. A second narrow CME was observed
from 05/0812 UT off the solar eastern limb that was associated
with a filament eruption. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
No other CMEs were observed in available imagery on 05-Nov.
Two shocks to the solar wind were observed late 05-Nov.
The first shock was observed at 0810 UT, followed by the second
at 1146 UT. It is possible a CME that was first observed on 02-Nov
was responsible for the first shock, and the second shock was
the CME associated with the large filament eruption on 03-Nov.
Solar wind speeds reached a maximum of 511 km/s but are now near
480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 44 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +43 to -27 nT.
Solar wind parameter Bz was oriented southward for several prolonged
periods, but has switched northward since around 2025 UT.
The solar wind parameters are expected to stay enhanced, but
on a declining trend, on 06-Nov. Additional enhancements are
then expected by 07-Nov due to a co-rotating interaction region
(CIR) preceding a coronal hole high speed wind stream and solar
wind speeds are expected to be elevated over 07-08 Nov. This coronal
hole was observed on the Sun during it's last rotation in early October,
but did not end up connecting with Earth, giving low confidence it will connect
with Earth this rotation. In the absence of this activity, the
solar wind parameters are expected to return to background levels
by 08-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: G2
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 35 33355653
Cocos Island 35 33355653
Darwin 35 33355653
Townsville 41 33356654
Learmonth 46 43356664
Alice Springs 35 33355653
Gingin 47 42355763
Canberra 33 23345654
Hobart 55 23345863
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 52 32155773
Casey 41 35564553
Mawson 69 44376765
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 142 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 31
Planetary 62
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 0010 2354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 25 G0-G1 with a chance for G2 early in the UT day
07 Nov 18 G0-G1
08 Nov 14 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 66 was issued on 4 November
and is current for 5-6 Nov. Planetary geomagnetic conditions
on UT day 05-Nov reached G3 doe to the arrival of one or possibly
two recent CMEs, most notably the partial halo CME associated
with a large filament eruption on 03-Nov. The Australian region
as a whole recorded a maximum of G2 geomagnetic conditions, however
a period of G3 was observed in Gingin and a period of G4 was
observed in Hobart. The maximum geomagnetic conditions observed
in the Antarctica stations were G3.
Further periods of G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions are possible on 06-Nov as CME effects
wane. Further G1 conditions are possible over 07-08 Nov, as a
co-rotating interaction region is expected to arrive ahead of
a coronal hole high speed wind stream early on 07-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Poor Poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Poor-fair Fair Poor
07 Nov Fair Fair Poor
08 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 05-Nov were
initially good but became poor by the end of the UT day due to
geomagnetic activity. Degraded conditions were observed at all
latitudes. Equatorial scintillation was observed. Conditions
are expected to become less degraded during local daylight hours
on 06-Nov, but degradations are likely during local night hours.
Similar conditions are expected over 07-08 Nov as further geomagnetic
activity can be expected on these days. Further equatorial scintillation
may be possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values to 45% depressed
07 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed
08 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 110 was issued on 5
November and is current for 5-7 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 05-Nov became depressed
by 45% by the end of the day. HF communication conditions in
the Australian region were heavily degraded during local night
hours. Scintillation was observed between 1024-1414 UT at both
Darwin and Weipa. Conditions may recover somewhat during local
daylight hours on 06-Nov, but further degradations and depressions
of 10-30% are expected by local night hours. Depressions of or
around this magnitude are expected to continue over 07-08 Nov
as further geomagnetic activity is expected due to a co-rotating
interaction region ahead of a coronal hole wind stream. Further
equatorial scintillation events are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 331 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 30900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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