[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 04 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 5 10:31:18 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Nov was R0. There are currently
nine numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3472 (N20W78,
beta) has shown some growth over the past 24 hours, but this
region is rotating over the limb and will be out of sight soon.
AR3477 (S15E34, beta-gamma) has shown some growth in its trailer
spots and is currently the largest spot on the disk. AR3479 (N22W15,
beta) has shown some minor growth, and AR3480 (S08E57, gamma)
has been stable but it one of the most magnetically complex regions
on the disk. Overall, the regions in view have potential for
M-class flares but have mostly remained quiet in the past few
days. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 with a chance for
R2.
Two slow moving CMEs were observed in succession from around
04/0024 UT near the solar north pole. These events likely are
associated with prominence activity in the area, and are not
considered to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on
04-Nov.
The solar wind parameters on 04-Nov were indicative of
a CME arrival from 04/1545 UT. The solar wind showed no significant
increase and ranged between 305 and 365 km/s over the day. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF) increase slowly
to reach a maximum of 17 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -14 nT with a sustained period of southward
Bz since the arrival of the CME. There was a steady increase
in solar wind density from 04/1545 UT. The solar wind is expected
to remain near background levels until the arrival of a CME that
was first observed on 03-Nov from a large filament eruption.
There is much uncertainty around the arrival time and strength
of this CME, however latest analysis suggests there will be an
arrival increase to the solar wind parameters possibly from 05/1900
UT +/- 12 hours. An earlier than expected arrival may be possible
due to the recent CME impact and coronal activity enabling an
easier transit through space for this CME. Solar wind parameters
are expected to remain elevated from this point and on 06-Nov.
On late 06-Nov or on 07-Nov the onset of a large coronal hole
wind stream is expected to begin, further increasing solar wind
speeds.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: G1
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 11001344
Cocos Island 7 01101342
Darwin 8 21001334
Townsville 8 11101334
Learmonth 9 10001344
Alice Springs 8 11001334
Gingin 12 11011354
Canberra 6 10001234
Hobart 8 11101334
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 00000233
Casey 10 33222223
Mawson 16 22123354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1011 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 45 G2-G3
06 Nov 25 G1-G2
07 Nov 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 66 was issued on 4 November
and is current for 5-6 Nov. Planetary geomagnetic conditions
reached G1 by the end of 04-Nov due to the arrival of a recent
CME. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and Antarctica region over this event with an isolated
period of G1 at Gingin and Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected for the first half of UT day 05-Nov, increasing
to G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions by the end of the day due to
the expected arrival of a CME associated with a large filament
eruption from 03-Nov. There is much uncertainty around the strength
and time of arrival (currently estimated near 05/1900 UT +/-
12 hours) of this event. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected
to persist over 06-07 Nov as CME effects wane and the effects
from a large coronal hole wind stream begin.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair
06 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Nov Fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 04-Nov were
good. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be normal
for the first half of UT day 05-Nov, becoming degraded by local
night hours due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Degraded
conditions are likely to persist over 05-07 Nov due to further
anticipated geomagnetic activity. The strongest degradations
are expected to be during local night and dawn hours in high
and mid latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible. Equatorial
scintillation is possible over 05-06 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values tending to 10-20%
depressed
06 Nov 95 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
07 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 108 was issued on
2 November and is current for 3-5 Nov. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 109 was issued on 4 November and is current for 5-7 Nov.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
values to 20-30% enhanced in the Australian region on UT day
04-Nov. Australian region HF radio communication conditions were
generally good. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values for the first half of UT day 05-Nov, becoming depressed
by 10-20% by the end of the day due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Depressions are likely to persist over 05-07 Nov, as
further geomagnetic activity is expected by the end of the forecast
period. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible. Equatorial
scintillation events are possible over 05-06 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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