[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 4 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity R0-R2 R0-R2 R0-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 156/110 156/110
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Nov was R0, with no significant
radio blackouts. There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3477 (S13E38, gamma) has shown some growth
in its trailer spots, and AR3480 (S07E64, gamma) continues to
rotate into view and appears to be magnetically complex. While
AR3474 (S17W53, beta) has started showing decay, this sunspot
still maintains a complex configuration. All other sunspot regions
have either decayed into plage regions, or else contain only
minor spots. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R2 over 04-06
Nov.
CME activity on UT day 03-Nov was complex, with many CMEs
being observed. A CME observed from 02/2312 UT directed to the
solar west is considered farside and not Earth-directed. A CME
observed from 03/0248 UT directed to the south is also considered
a farside event and not Earth-directed. From around 03/0452 UT
a large filament in the solar northeast that was mentioned in
yesterday's report erupted and was associated with a partial-halo
CME. This CME is expected to have an Earth-directed component
to arrive from 05/1700 UT +/- 12 hours, although a later arrival
is more likely than an early arrival. A prominence eruption was
observed off the western solar limb from 03/0928 UT and an associated
CME was observed from 03/1004 UT directed to the solar southwest
but it is not expected to be significantly geoeffective.
The
solar wind parameters on UT day 03-Nov were steady and unremarkable.
The solar wind speed ranged between 379 to 325 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -3 nT. The solar
wind parameters are expected to increase over 04-06 Nov due to
multiple anticipated CME impacts. Only a mild increase is expected
on 04-Nov, followed by a stronger increase on 05-Nov, which is
expected to continue into 06-Nov. There is a large coronal hole
that will soon cross the central meridian, but it is not expected
to significantly influence the solar wind speed in the forecast
period 04-06 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11102001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 11102001
Townsville 2 11102001
Learmonth 2 11102001
Alice Springs 1 11002000
Gingin 2 11102001
Canberra 1 11101000
Hobart 2 12211000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00112000
Casey 7 33311011
Mawson 3 22211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2311 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 10 G0-G1
05 Nov 45 G2-G3
06 Nov 25 G1-G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 65 was issued on 2 November
and is current for 4-5 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
and Antarctica regions on UT day 03-Nov was G0. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 04-Nov due to a possible weak glancing
blow from a CME first observed on 31-Oct and possibly an early
arrival of a CME first observed on 02-Nov may contribute to the
geomagnetic activity. A partial-halo CME is expected to arrive
by 05/1700 UT +/-12 hours and induce G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions,
although a later arrival is more likely than an early arrival.
There is some uncertainty in this forecast due to the nature
of this event and the possibility of already heightened geomagnetic
activity preceding this event. Conditions are expected to continue
into 06-Nov and G1-G2 are likely on this day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
06 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 03-Nov were
good. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be mostly
normal on the first half of 04-Nov but some minor degradations
may be observed during local night hours. Stronger degraded conditions
are expected over 05-06 Nov due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible. Equatorial scintillation
is possible over 05-06 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 150
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
05 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values tending to 10-20%
depressed
06 Nov 85 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 108 was issued on
2 November and is current for 3-5 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values to 25-50% enhanced
in the Australian region. Scintillation was observed at Weipa
from 03/1434-1450 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 25% enhanced on 04-Nov, and on 05-Nov, until the arrival
of an anticipated CME that was first observed on 03/0540 UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to depressed by
10-20% from this event and continue into 06-Nov. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible. Equatorial scintillation is possible over
05-06 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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