[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 November 23 issued 2331 UT on 02 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 3 10:31:04 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1222UT possible lower European
M1.0 1921UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 162/116 158/112
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 2-Nov was at the R1 level,
due to an impulsive M1.6 flare at 02/1222UT and an M1.0 flare
at 02/1921UT. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. AR3474
(S17W37, beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically
complex sunspot region on the solar disk and was responsible
for the M1.6 flare at 02/1222UT. This region showed some decay
in its trailer spots over the UT day. Newly numbered AR3479 (N24E12,
beta) showed spot development over the UT day. All other numbered
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered
region has recently rotated on to the solar disk at around S05E80.
This region appears to have beta magnetic characteristics but
it is difficult to determine this conclusively due to foreshortening
on the limb. This region was responsible for the M1.0 flare at
02/1921UT. A further unnumbered region has appeared on the solar
disk at around S18E08 with beta magnetic complexity. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 3-5 Nov.
A northeast directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 02/0324UT. This CME is associated with an eruption visible on
the solar disk at around N28E28 in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-alpha
imagery from 02/0253UT. Modelling indicates this CME will result
in a glancing impact with Earth on 5-Nov at 0100UT +/- 12 hours.
An east directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from
02/0600UT. This CME is likely associated with a pair of C-class
flares at 02/0522UT and 02/0626UT from the unnumbered region at
S05E80. A concurrent eruption is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI
imagery off the eastern limb. This CME is not considered geoeffective.
A large filament is visible on the solar disk stretching from
N05E45 to N32E20. This filament is currently in a geoeffective
location and will likely have an effect on Earth if it was to
leave the solar disk.
The solar wind speed on UT day 2-Nov was on a general declining
trend as Earth exits a coronal hole high speed wind stream. The
solar wind speed ranged from 444 to 373 km/s and is currently
near 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +4 to
-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels on 3-Nov. There is a chance of an increase in solar wind
speed due to a glancing impact on 4-Nov from a CME first observed
on 31-Oct, if this does not eventuate the solar wind speed is
expected to be at background levels on 4-Nov. A further increase
is expected late on 4-Nov or early on 5-Nov due to a CME first
observed on 2-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 12121212
Cocos Island 3 12111200
Darwin 4 12111211
Townsville 5 22121212
Learmonth 4 12111212
Alice Springs 5 12121212
Gingin 4 21111212
Canberra 5 12121212
Hobart 4 12121211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 02122101
Casey 11 34321222
Mawson 11 24113233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2222 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 5 G0
04 Nov 10 G0, chance of G1
05 Nov 15 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 2-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 3-Nov. A weak, glancing CME impact is possible
on 4-Nov, but this is not expected to produce conditions above
the G0 level. However, an early glancing impact from the CME
first observed on 2-Nov gives the chance of G1 conditions late
on 4-Nov. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 5-Nov due to a glancing
impact from a CME first observed on 2-Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 2-Nov were
mostly normal. HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 3-4 Nov. There is a possibility of degraded conditions
at high latitudes on 5-Nov due to geomagnetic activity. Mostly
normal propagation conditions are expected at mid to low latitudes.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day and local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day and local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Nov 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Nov 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 3-4 Nov. There is a chance of mild depressions in the southern
Australian region on 5-Nov due to geomagnetic activity. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
in the northern Australian region. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 99400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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