[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 01 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 2 10:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0628UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1226UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 162/116 162/116
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 1-Nov was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.1 flare at 02/0628UT and an M1.4 flare at 01/1226UT.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and three unnumbered regions. Both R1 level flares
on 1-Nov were produced by AR3477 (S11E62, beta) which has recently
rotated over the solar disk and appears stable. AR3474 (S17W26,
beta-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot
region on the solar disk and displayed trailer spot movement
over the UT day. AR3472 (N20W37, beta) and AR3476 (S13W05, beta)
both showed sunspot development. All other numbered sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Two small unnumbered regions are
visible at N14W17 and N24E23 and have simple magnetic complexity.
Another unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the solar
disk at N15E72 with alpha magnetic complexity and appears stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 2-4 Nov.
No significantly geoeffective CMEs were observed on 1-Nov. A
south-directed CME was observed at 31/2224UT associated with
a filament eruption observed from 31/2108UT near S30E20. Modelling
indicates the majority of this CME will pass south of the Earth,
but there is a chance of a glancing impact on 4-Nov at around
0700UT +/- 12 hours. An east-directed, narrow CME was observed
from 01/1325UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is associated
with an eruption visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 01/1155UT
on the east limb, associated with the M1.4 flare at 01/1226UT.
This CME is not considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 1-Nov was on a general declining
trend as Earth exits a coronal hole wind stream. The solar wind
speed ranged from 495 to 416 km/s and is currently near 470 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT
and the north-south IMF component range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue to decline towards background
levels and remain there over 2-3 Nov. There is a chance of an
increase in solar wind speed due to a glancing impact on 4-Nov
from a CME first observed on 31-Oct, if this does not eventuate
the solar wind speed is expected to be at background levels on 4-Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Cocos Island 5 22222210
Darwin 5 22122111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 21223202
Alice Springs 5 12222211
Gingin 7 21223212
Canberra 6 22222211
Hobart 7 22223211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 22244211
Casey 16 35333222
Mawson 17 34333234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 2223 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 6 G0
03 Nov 5 G0
04 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 1-Nov. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 2-3 Nov.
A weak glancing CME impact is possible on 4-Nov but this is not
expected to produce conditions above the G0 level.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 1-Nov were
mostly normal with some degradations at low and high latitudes
during local night hours. HF propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 2-4 Nov. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Nov 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Nov 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced in the southern Australian region,
with most enhancements occurring during local day. MUFs were
near predicted monthly values in the northern Australian region.
Some mild depressions were observed in the western Australian
region during local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over 2-4 Nov. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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