[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 October 23 issued 2330 UT on 31 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 1 10:30:08 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 148/102 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Oct was R0, with no notable
solar flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR3472 (N20W23, beta), AR3474 (S17W12, beta-gamma)
and AR3476 (S13E09, beta) have all grown in the past 24 hours,
with the most significant growth from AR3474. New region AR3477
is rotating on to the visible solar disk near S11, and although
it is mostly still obscured from view it may be a complex region.
All other sunspot regions are in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 01-03 Nov.
A prominence eruption was observed
on the farside of the northern solar pole from 31/0530 UT. An
associated CME was observed from 31/0600 directed to the north,
but this event is not expected to be geoeffective. A second CME
from the eastern solar limb was observed from 31/2124 UT, but
this event is also considered farside and not geoeffective. A
filament began erupting from 31/2108 UT near S30E20 and will
be monitored for any possible associated CME. Otherwise, no further
CMEs were observed on 31-Oct.
The solar wind speed on UT day
31-Oct was on a general declining trend as Earth exits a coronal
hole wind stream. The solar wind speed ranged from 546 to 471
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +4 to -4
nT. A small enhancement to the solar wind speed may be observed
over 02-03 Nov due to a small equatorial coronal hole, although
this feature is weak and confidence is low regarding it being
able to connect with Earth. Should the enhancement not eventuate,
solar wind conditions are expected to be at background levels
over 01-03 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 21244012
Cocos Island 3 11122011
Darwin 6 21133012
Townsville 9 12244011
Learmonth 13 21245112
Alice Springs 8 12234012
Gingin 10 21244012
Canberra 8 21143012
Hobart 10 22244111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 14 11255011
Casey 19 35533122
Mawson 25 44434335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3203 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 10 G0
02 Nov 6 G0
03 Nov 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-Oct. A mild disturbance was registered in
the Australian region magnetic data around 1000-1200 UT (mostly
under the G1 threshold). The solar wind parameter Bz was oriented
slightly southward (near -4 nT) for a two hour period prior to
this, which may have induced a substorm responsible for this
data, although overall it is unclear what caused this activity
as space weather was generally quiet at this time. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctica region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 01-03 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 31-Oct were
mostly normal with some degradations at low latitudes during
local dusk and night hours. HF conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 01-03 Nov. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 104
Oct 98
Nov 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Nov 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Nov 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 107 was issued on
31 October and is current for 31 Oct to 1 Nov. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed
at low latitude sites such as Darwin, Norfolk Island and Niue
Island at local dusk hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted values to 15% enhanced over 01-03 Nov. Isolated
minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 307000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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