[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 29 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 30 09:31:25 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-May was at R0 levels. The
largest flare on the UT day was a double peaked C5.9 flare from
AR3310(S20W79, alpha) from 1820 UT. There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3315 (S17W31, beta), which
featured in yesterday's forecast, has started to decay and has
not produced any significant flares over the 24 hour period.
AR3317 (N28W37, beta), AR3318 (N25W30, beta) and AR3319 (S17E02,
beta) have all shown rapid growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 30-May to 01-Jun, with a chance for R2
flares. A slow moving northwest CME was observed in SOHO imagery
from 29/0200 UT, but is likely a farside event and not geoeffective.
No other CMEs were observed. The solar wind speed was on a general
declining trend on UT day 29-May and ranged between 357 to 455
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -4 nT. A large coronal hole in the southern solar hemisphere
may increase solar wind speeds by 01-Jun, although given its
southern latitudinal extent this is low confidence. Otherwise,
the solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
over 30-May to 01-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: G0
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 10110011
Townsville 2 11100012
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 5 22221211
Mawson 10 22210125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3432 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 6 G0
31 May 6 G0
01 Jun 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 30-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 30-May to 01-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Poor Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Fair Normal-fair Fair
31 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 29-May were generally
fair. Degraded conditions were observed at low latitude and high
latitude regions, with mid-latitude regions being generally normal.
HF communication conditions are expected to be normal to fair
over 30-May to 01-Jun, with degradations possible during local
night hours. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 75 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
31 May 75 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
01 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on
28 May and is current for 29-31 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29-May were near predicted monthly values to
20% depressed during local night hours. Strong spread-F was observed
in Hobart; sporadic-E was observed at Townsville, Brisbane and
Cocos Islands, and general degraded conditions were observed
in Darwin and Brisbane. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 30-May to 01-Jun, with some mild depressions.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 60300 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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