[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 28 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 29 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1036UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-May was at the R1 level
due to an M1 flare from solar region AR3315(S17W17, beta-gamma-delta).This
region continues to slowly increase in size and magnetic complexity,
with some intermediate spot development, but has yet to produce
a major flare. This region also produced 4 low C class flares.
Medium sized solar region AR3310(S20W65, alpha) which consists
of a large spot, remained flare quiet. Solar region AR3314(N12W69,
beta-gamma) has developed in size and magnetic complexity as
it approaches the western solar limb. Small solar region AR3316(N09E14,
beta) produced an isolated low level C class flare and has shown
some development. There are currently 7 solar regions on the
disk, others regions were flare quiet. Earlier flare active solar
region AR3311(N18W56, beta) continues to decline. A small solar
filament located at N32E25 erupted at 28/1042UT but no associated
CME was evident. Solar activity is expected to be at R1, with
a chance of an R2 flare (from AR3315) over 29-31 May. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT
day 28-May showed a steady trend and ranged from 462 to 378 km/s,
and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +5 to -6nT. The IMF Bz component slowly drifted mildly
southward from around 27/1600UT-28/1200UT. A small coronal hole
may produce a very mild increase in solar wind speed 30-31 May.
Another larger coronal hole is visible in the southeast solar
quadrant. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is also visible
in the eastern solar hemisphere. There is a slight chance for
a very weak CME transient signature in the solar wind parameters
on 29-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: G0
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22232022
Cocos Island 3 21112011
Darwin 4 22122011
Townsville 6 22222022
Learmonth 8 32232022
Alice Springs 5 22222021
Gingin 8 31232032
Canberra 7 222320--
Hobart 9 22243022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 14 23345101
Casey 7 32212122
Mawson 35 55433165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1211 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 13 G0
30 May 10 G0
31 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
on UT day 28-May. G0-G2 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region with a G1 period at Macquarie Island and G1 periods with
a single G2 period at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 29-31 May. There is a slight chance for a very weak glancing
blow from a CME on 29-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Fair
30 May Normal Normal Fair
31 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 28-May were generally
fair to normal, with some degradations observed at middle to
high latitudes during local night hours. Antarctic riometers
showed a slight (approx. 1dB) increase in absorption at Casey,
Davis and Mawson during 28/0530-0730UT. HF communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 29-31 May. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
30 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
31 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on
28 May and is current for 29-31 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 28-May were generally near predicted monthly
values Spread-F was observed during local night hours indicating
degraded HF communication conditions overnight. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 29-31 May. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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