[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 30 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 31 09:31:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0810UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 1022UT possible lower European
M1.4 1338UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-May reached R1 levels with
3 M-class solar flares. An M1.2 flare was observed at 0810 UT
from sunspot region AR3310 (S20W92, alpha), an M1.3 flare was
observed at 1022 UT from AR3310 and an M1.4 flare was observed
at 1338 UT from AR3315 (S17W45, beta). There are currently 9
numbered sunspot regions on the disk. AR3310, which has been
the most flare active region in the past few days, is mostly
beyond the western solar limb and out of view. AR3315 maintains
a complex magnetic configuration, but has shown decay in its
trailer region. AR3319 (S17W13, beta) has shown rapid growth
over the period. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. A slow CME was observed to the western solar limb
from 30/1712 UT and a preliminary analysis suggests it was not
be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 30-May was at background levels and ranged between
344 to 414 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels over 31-May to 02-Jun. A large
southern coronal hole may increase solar wind speeds by the end
of the period, although confidence is low given its southern
latitudinal extent.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: G0
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 2 00110012
Cocos Island 1 00110011
Darwin 2 10111012
Townsville 3 11111012
Learmonth 1 00100012
Alice Springs 0 00100001
Gingin 2 00110012
Canberra 1 10000002
Hobart 0 00010001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 5 22211112
Mawson 15 31111036
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 6 G0
01 Jun 6 G0
02 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 31-May. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 31-May to 02-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 30-May were mostly
normal. Degraded conditions were observed in low latitude regions
and prolonged spread-F was present at high latitude regions.
Middle latitude regions were generally good. HF communication
conditions are expected to be normal to fair over 31-May to 02-Jun,
with degradations possible during local night hours. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on
28 May and is current for 29-31 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 30-May were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Spread-F was observed in Hobart. Degraded conditions were observed
in Brisbane and Darwin during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 31-May to 02-Jun. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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