[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 23 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 24 09:31:36 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.0 1213UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-May reached the R1 level
due to a single M3.0 flare at 23/1213UT produced by AR3311 (N18E07,
beta-gamma-delta). There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3310 (S20W01, beta), AR3311, AR3312
(S24E16, beta) and AR3313 (N22E23, alpha) all displayed development
in their trailer spots over the UT day, whilst newly arrived
AR3315 (S17E46, beta) showed slight decay. AR3311 is the largest
and most complex active region on the solar disk and produced
the only M-class flare of the day. Flaring activity has been
quieter over the last two days, but sunspot complexity remains.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 24-26 May.
Several CMEs were observed on 23-May, but none are considered
to be geoeffective. A west directed CME is visible from 23/0824UT
which may be associated with a filament lift off visible in SDO,
GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 23/0117UT at around S20W50.
Modelling indicates this CME has no geoeffective component. A
halo CME is visible from 23/1101UT in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery.
No on disk activity is associated with this CME and modelling
suggests it is a far side event. The solar wind speed on UT day
23-May was elevated and variable throughout the day. The solar
wind speed ranged between 459 to 640 km/s and is currently near
570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +7 to
-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
24-26 May due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: G0
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22220033
Cocos Island 6 21310023
Darwin 6 22220023
Townsville 7 22220033
Learmonth 9 22321133
Alice Springs 7 22220033
Gingin 11 32210144
Canberra 6 22220023
Hobart 7 22320123
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 13 33431033
Casey 20 33331236
Mawson 68 35631278
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23 4433 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 15 G0, chance G1
25 May 12 G0
26 May 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 22 May and
is current for 23-24 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 23-May. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, with an isolated
period of G2 observed at Casey. Periods of G1-G4 were observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 24-26
May, with a chance of G1 on 24-May due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 23-May, HF communication conditions were mildly
degraded at high and low latitudes and were mostly normal at
mid latitudes. Propagation conditions over 24-26 May are expected
to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded conditions,
especially in high latitude regions, due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 21
May and is current for 22-24 May. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 49 was issued on 22 May and is current for 23-25 May.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23-May were near
predicted monthly values in the northern Australian region and
up to 15% depressed in the southern Australian region during
local night. Spread-F and sporadic E were observed at Canberra,
Hobart, Brisbane and Norfolk Island during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 24-26
May, with a chance of mild depressions due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 272000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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