[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 May 23 issued 2335 UT on 22 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 23 09:35:42 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1337UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-May reached the R1 level
due to a single M1.9 flare at 22/1337UT produced by AR3312 (S24E28,
beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk. AR3308 (N11W78, beta), AR3310 (S20E12, beta-gamma),
AR3311 (N18E20, beta-gamma) and AR3312 all displayed development
over the UT day. However, AR3308 is soon to rotate off the solar
disk and, apart from the M1.9 flare from AR3312, the regions
produced very few flares on 22-May. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region has possibly
emerged at around N10E23, however this may be an extension of
AR3311. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over
23-25 May. Several CMEs were observed on 22-May, but none are
considered to be geoeffective. A halo CME is visible from 22/0012UT
in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery, there is no on disk activity and
modelling suggests this CME is from a far side event. A bright
north directed CME is visible in STEREO-A and LASCO imagery from
22/0824UT. This CME is likely associated with an eruption visible
at around N55W60 in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 22/0706UT,
modelling indicates this CME has no geoeffective component. An
eruption is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery at around S40E20
from 22/1346UT which is likely associated with a faint southeast
directed CME visible from 22/1436UT. Modelling indicates this
CME will pass below the Earth. The solar wind speed on UT day
22-May was elevated throughout the day, with a dip at 22/0730UT
followed by a rise, likely due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. The solar wind speed ranged between 500 to 625
km/s and is currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +6 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated over 23-25 May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: G0
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 14 33333233
Cocos Island 10 32332132
Darwin 12 33332232
Townsville 13 33333232
Learmonth 16 43332243
Alice Springs 13 33233233
Gingin 15 43333233
Canberra 14 32343332
Hobart 15 23343333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 22 33454234
Casey 17 44333233
Mawson 51 65432376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 82 (Minor storm)
Canberra 82 (Minor storm)
Hobart 118 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26 2312 3465
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 25 G0-G1
24 May 25 G0-G1
25 May 15 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 22 May and
is current for 23-24 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 22-May. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, with an isolated
period of G1 at Macquarie Island, G2-G3 conditions were observed
at Mawson. General planetary geomagnetic conditions were G1 for
the first period of the day due to a CME impact, G0 for the remainder
of the day. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-25
May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
24 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 22-May, HF communication conditions were degraded
at high latitudes, and mildly degraded at mid to low latitudes.
Further degraded conditions are possible over 23-25 May, especially
in high latitude regions due to possible geomagnetic activity
from coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 21
May and is current for 22-24 May. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 49 was issued on 22 May and is current for 23-25 May.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-May were near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread-F was
observed at Canberra, Hobart and Perth during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 23-25
May, with a chance of mild depressions due to possible geomagnetic
activity from coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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