[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 May 23 issued 2335 UT on 22 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 23 09:35:42 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    1337UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 162/116


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-May reached the R1 level 
due to a single M1.9 flare at 22/1337UT produced by AR3312 (S24E28, 
beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot regions on the 
solar disk. AR3308 (N11W78, beta), AR3310 (S20E12, beta-gamma), 
AR3311 (N18E20, beta-gamma) and AR3312 all displayed development 
over the UT day. However, AR3308 is soon to rotate off the solar 
disk and, apart from the M1.9 flare from AR3312, the regions 
produced very few flares on 22-May. All other sunspot regions 
are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered region has possibly 
emerged at around N10E23, however this may be an extension of 
AR3311. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 
23-25 May. Several CMEs were observed on 22-May, but none are 
considered to be geoeffective. A halo CME is visible from 22/0012UT 
in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery, there is no on disk activity and 
modelling suggests this CME is from a far side event. A bright 
north directed CME is visible in STEREO-A and LASCO imagery from 
22/0824UT. This CME is likely associated with an eruption visible 
at around N55W60 in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 22/0706UT, 
modelling indicates this CME has no geoeffective component. An 
eruption is visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery at around S40E20 
from 22/1346UT which is likely associated with a faint southeast 
directed CME visible from 22/1436UT. Modelling indicates this 
CME will pass below the Earth. The solar wind speed on UT day 
22-May was elevated throughout the day, with a dip at 22/0730UT 
followed by a rise, likely due to coronal hole high speed wind 
stream effects. The solar wind speed ranged between 500 to 625 
km/s and is currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component 
range was +6 to -9 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain 
elevated over 23-25 May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream 
effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: G0

Estimated Indices 22 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33333233
      Cocos Island        10   32332132
      Darwin              12   33332232
      Townsville          13   33333232
      Learmonth           16   43332243
      Alice Springs       13   33233233
      Gingin              15   43333233
      Canberra            14   32343332
      Hobart              15   23343333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
      Macquarie Island    22   33454234
      Casey               17   44333233
      Mawson              51   65432376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           17   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        8   (Quiet)
      Gingin              82   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            82   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             118   (Major storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26   2312 3465     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May    25    G0-G1
24 May    25    G0-G1
25 May    15    G0-G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 22 May and 
is current for 23-24 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 22-May. Mostly G0 conditions 
were observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, with an isolated 
period of G1 at Macquarie Island, G2-G3 conditions were observed 
at Mawson. General planetary geomagnetic conditions were G1 for 
the first period of the day due to a CME impact, G0 for the remainder 
of the day. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-25 
May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
24 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: On UT day 22-May, HF communication conditions were degraded 
at high latitudes, and mildly degraded at mid to low latitudes. 
Further degraded conditions are possible over 23-25 May, especially 
in high latitude regions due to possible geomagnetic activity 
from coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Shortwave fadeouts 
are probable.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 May   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      87
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May   100    Near predicted monthly values
24 May   100    Near predicted monthly values
25 May   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 21 
May and is current for 22-24 May. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 49 was issued on 22 May and is current for 23-25 May. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-May were near 
predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread-F was 
observed at Canberra, Hobart and Perth during local night hours. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 23-25 
May, with a chance of mild depressions due to possible geomagnetic 
activity from coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Shortwave 
fadeouts are probable.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 490 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   141000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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