[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 24 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 25 09:31:05 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0958UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.8 1722UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-May reached R1 levels. The
largest flare of the UT was M18 at 1724 UT from AR3311 (N18W05,
beta-gamma-delta). An M1 flare was observed at 24/0958UT from
AR3311 and another M1 flare was observed at 24/1800 UT from AR3315
(S17E36, beta-gamma). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3310 (S20W13, beta-gamma), AR3311,
AR3312 (S24E04, gamma) and AR3314 (N12W14, beta-gamma) have all
shown growth in their trailer spots over the past 24 hours. AR3315
has shown rapid growth over the 24 hour period. AR3313 (N22E11,
alpha) is stable. Solar activity is expected to be At R1-R2 levels
over 25-27 May. No significant CMEs were observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 24-May was on a general decreasing trend
until 2000 UT, where it began to increase, and ranged between
466 to 617 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed may continue to remain elevated
over 25-May due to ongoing coronal hole effects, but is expected
to decrease over 26-27 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: G0
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 8 23112232
Cocos Island 6 22022131
Darwin 6 22212222
Townsville 9 23222232
Learmonth 10 23223232
Alice Springs 8 23112232
Gingin 9 23213232
Canberra 8 23112232
Hobart 10 23113332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 10 22014332
Casey 18 44322252
Mawson 38 45322375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 3322 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 12 G0
26 May 10 G0
27 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Casey and a G1 and G3 period observed at Mawson.
Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 25-27 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 24-May were mildly
degraded at low and high latitudes and were mostly normal at
mid-latitudes. HF propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal over 25-27 May, with a chance for mildly degraded conditions
in high latitude regions at local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable. .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
27 May 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on
22 May and is current for 23-25 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 24-May were near predicted monthly values. Spread-F
was observed in Hobart during local night hours. Conditions were
mildly degraded in low latitude sites such as Cocos Islands and
Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 25-27 May, with enhancements of 15-20% possible later
in the period. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 163000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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