[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 15 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 16 09:31:01 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 May 17 May 18 May
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-May was at the R0 level,
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3305 (N08E02, beta)
has exhibited growth, while all other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 16-18 May, with a slight chance of R1. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A filament
eruption was observed in the northwest quadrant, visible in H-alpha
imagery from 15/0900UT near N35W10. This may be associated with
a north-directed CME visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery from
15/1100UT, although this CME is not considered to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 15-May was mostly stable, ranging
from 450 to 520 km/s, and is currently near 510 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 6 to -5 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to decline to near background levels over
16-18 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: G0
Estimated Indices 15 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100121
Cocos Island 2 11000120
Darwin 3 11101121
Townsville 4 21101122
Learmonth 3 11100130
Alice Springs 1 10000120
Gingin 3 11100130
Canberra 2 11000121
Hobart 2 01000121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00001120
Casey 7 23211231
Mawson 23 11111174
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1201 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 May 8 G0
17 May 5 G0
18 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 15-May, with the exception
of an isolated period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 16-18 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal
18 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 15-May. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
16-18 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 May 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 May 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 May 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 May 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-May were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread-F
was observed at Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 16-18 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 188000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list