[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 15 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 16 09:31:01 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-May was at the R0 level, 
with low-level C-class flaring only. There are currently six 
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3305 (N08E02, beta) 
has exhibited growth, while all other sunspot regions are either 
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 
level over 16-18 May, with a slight chance of R1. Several CMEs 
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A filament 
eruption was observed in the northwest quadrant, visible in H-alpha 
imagery from 15/0900UT near N35W10. This may be associated with 
a north-directed CME visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery from 
15/1100UT, although this CME is not considered to be geoeffective. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 15-May was mostly stable, ranging 
from 450 to 520 km/s, and is currently near 510 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 6 to -5 nT. The solar 
wind speed is expected to decline to near background levels over 
16-18 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: G0

Estimated Indices 15 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100121
      Cocos Island         2   11000120
      Darwin               3   11101121
      Townsville           4   21101122
      Learmonth            3   11100130
      Alice Springs        1   10000120
      Gingin               3   11100130
      Canberra             2   11000121
      Hobart               2   01000121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001120
      Casey                7   23211231
      Mawson              23   11111174

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1201 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May     8    G0
17 May     5    G0
18 May     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the 
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 15-May, with the exception 
of an isolated period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected over 16-18 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed 
on 15-May. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 
16-18 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 May   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      87
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 May   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 May   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 15-May were 
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread-F 
was observed at Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart during local night 
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 15% enhanced over 16-18 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are 
possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 May
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:   188000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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