[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 14 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 15 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-May was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk and two unnumbered region.
AR3296 (N15W92) has now rotated off the solar disk. AR3305 (N10E12,
beta) showed spot development over the UT day. All other numbered
sunspot regions are stable or in decay. Two unnumbered regions
are visible at S23W35 and S11E50 with beta-gamma-delta and beta
magnetic characteristics respectively. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over 15-17 May. No
geoeffective CMEs were observed on 14-May. A filament eruption
is visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 14/0900UT
at around N18W55. No associated CME is visible in available coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind speed increased slightly on UT day 14-May,
ranging from 411 to 534 km/s and is currently at around 530 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 6 to -8 nT.
A mild jump in IMF conditions was observed at 14/1514UT. This
may have been due to the early arrival of a glancing impact from
a CME first observed on 11-May. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline to background levels over 15-17 May. However, an increase
is possible on 15-May due to the chance of a glancing impact
from a CME first observed on 11-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: G0
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11101222
Cocos Island 3 11110211
Darwin 4 11101222
Townsville 4 11101222
Learmonth 6 12201322
Alice Springs 4 11101222
Gingin 4 11100322
Canberra 4 11101222
Hobart 3 01100222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 5 01000332
Casey 7 23211222
Mawson 16 24312344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 2220 2244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 10 G0, slight chance of G1
16 May 8 G0
17 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 15-17 May. There is a slight chance of G1 on
15-May due to a possible glancing impact from a CME first observed
on 11-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 14-May. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
15-17 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-May were
near predicted monthly values in the Australian region. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart, and Canberra during local night hours.
Sporadic E was observed at Hobart and Cocos Island. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 15-17 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 88100 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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