[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 13 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 14 09:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-May was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. The most
significant region, AR3296 (N14W87, beta-gamma), has almost completely
rotated off the solar disk. Currently, a lack of available imagery
makes sunspot development difficult to determine, further analysis
will be performed when more imagery is available. An unnumbered
region is visible at around S26W51 with beta magnetic characteristics.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 14-16 May.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 13-May. A west directed
CME is visible from 13/0012UT, associated with the long duration
C9 flare from AR3296 which peaked at around 13/0040UT. Modelling
indicates this CME is directed too far to the west to have an
Earth directed component. The solar wind speed declined slightly
on UT day 13-May, ranging from 497 to 423 km/s and is currently
at around 455 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was 6 to -14 nT. A sustained period of negative Bz was observed
from 13/1715UT to 13/2055UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline to background levels over 14-16 May. However, an increase
is possible on 15-May due to the chance of a glancing impact
from a CME first observed on 11-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: G0
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22201233
Cocos Island 7 22211232
Darwin 7 22201233
Townsville 8 22212233
Learmonth 9 22302233
Alice Springs 7 22201233
Gingin 8 22301233
Canberra 7 22201133
Hobart 8 22200143
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 5 11100133
Casey 10 34300132
Mawson 32 34312275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 2432 5333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 7 G0
15 May 10 G0, slight chance of G1
16 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 and G3 observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-16
May. There is a slight chance of G1 on 15-May due to a possible
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 11-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 13-May. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
14-16 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible over 14-16
May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 13-May were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart, Norfolk, Townsville and Darwin
during local night hours. Sporadic E was observed across the
Australian region during 13-May. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 14-16 May. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible over 14-16 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 536 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 230000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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