[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 12 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 13 09:30:59 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity R1, chance of R2 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-May was at the R0 level,
with C-class flaring only. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3296 (N14W75, beta-gamma), AR3302
(N18E33, beta), AR3304 (N21E10, beta) and AR3305 (N08E41, beta)
all showed spot development over the UT day. AR3296 is the most
significant region on the solar disk, responsible for most of
the day's C-class flares. However, this region is approaching
the western limb and is expected to rotate off the disk over
13-14 May. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level,
with the chance of an isolated R2 flare on 13-May and R0-R1 levels
over 14-15 May. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 12-May.
A faint, narrow southwest CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A
imagery from 12/0548UT. This is likely associated with a filament
eruption visible in H-Alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 12/0433UT
at around S37W25. This CME is not considered geoeffective. A
broad faint southwest CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A
imagery from 12/1325UT. No disk activity coincides with this
CME. This is considered a far side event. The solar wind on UT
day 12-May was elevated, ranging from 480 to 596 km/s and is
currently at around 490 km/s. A shock was observed in the solar
wind at 13/0550UT due to an impact from a CME first observed
on 9-May. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
13 to -7 nT. No sustained period of negative Bz was observed.
The solar wind speed is expected to slowly decline over 13-14
May. An increase is possible on 15-May due to the chance of a
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 11-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: G0
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 14 22434322
Cocos Island 9 12324221
Darwin 12 22334322
Townsville 17 23435322
Learmonth 19 22535322
Alice Springs 16 22435322
Gingin 12 22324332
Canberra 12 12334322
Hobart 12 13324322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 15 13325332
Casey 14 22433422
Mawson 23 34533344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 5245 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 10 G0
14 May 7 G0
15 May 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 12-May, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Townsville and Alice Springs and two periods of
G1 observed at Learmonth. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Macquarie Island and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 13-14 May, G0 conditions, with a chance of
G1 are expected on 15-May due to a possible glancing impact from
a CME first observed on 11-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2325UT 09/05, Ended at 0350UT 11/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 12-May. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over
13-15 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are probable on 13-May
and possible over 14-15 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 May 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 May 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-May were
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced during local day.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart, Brisbane and Townsville during
local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at Canberra and Cocos
Islands during local night, with small amounts observed at Darwin,
Perth and Learmonth. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 13-15 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are probable on 13-May, and possible over 14-15 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 532 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 56900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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