[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 12 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 13 09:30:59 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     R1, chance of R2   R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-May was at the R0 level, 
with C-class flaring only. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot 
regions on the solar disk. AR3296 (N14W75, beta-gamma), AR3302 
(N18E33, beta), AR3304 (N21E10, beta) and AR3305 (N08E41, beta) 
all showed spot development over the UT day. AR3296 is the most 
significant region on the solar disk, responsible for most of 
the day's C-class flares. However, this region is approaching 
the western limb and is expected to rotate off the disk over 
13-14 May. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level, 
with the chance of an isolated R2 flare on 13-May and R0-R1 levels 
over 14-15 May. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 12-May. 
A faint, narrow southwest CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A 
imagery from 12/0548UT. This is likely associated with a filament 
eruption visible in H-Alpha, SDO and GOES SUVI imagery from 12/0433UT 
at around S37W25. This CME is not considered geoeffective. A 
broad faint southwest CME was observed in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A 
imagery from 12/1325UT. No disk activity coincides with this 
CME. This is considered a far side event. The solar wind on UT 
day 12-May was elevated, ranging from 480 to 596 km/s and is 
currently at around 490 km/s. A shock was observed in the solar 
wind at 13/0550UT due to an impact from a CME first observed 
on 9-May. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
13 to -7 nT. No sustained period of negative Bz was observed. 
The solar wind speed is expected to slowly decline over 13-14 
May. An increase is possible on 15-May due to the chance of a 
glancing impact from a CME first observed on 11-May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: G0

Estimated Indices 12 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   22434322
      Cocos Island         9   12324221
      Darwin              12   22334322
      Townsville          17   23435322
      Learmonth           19   22535322
      Alice Springs       16   22435322
      Gingin              12   22324332
      Canberra            12   12334322
      Hobart              12   13324322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
      Macquarie Island    15   13325332
      Casey               14   22433422
      Mawson              23   34533344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   5245 3223    


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May    10    G0
14 May     7    G0
15 May    15    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the 
Australian region on UT day 12-May, with an isolated period of 
G1 observed at Townsville and Alice Springs and two periods of 
G1 observed at Learmonth. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 
observed at Macquarie Island and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 13-14 May, G0 conditions, with a chance of 
G1 are expected on 15-May due to a possible glancing impact from 
a CME first observed on 11-May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2325UT 09/05, Ended at 0350UT 11/05

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed 
on 12-May. Normal HF propagation conditions are expected over 
13-15 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are probable on 13-May 
and possible over 14-15 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      87
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 May   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 May   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-May were 
near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced during local day. 
Spread-F was observed at Hobart, Brisbane and Townsville during 
local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at Canberra and Cocos 
Islands during local night, with small amounts observed at Darwin, 
Perth and Learmonth. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to 15% enhanced over 13-15 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts 
are probable on 13-May, and possible over 14-15 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 532 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    56900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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