[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 11 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 12 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 0901UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.8 1829UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-May reached the R1 level,
with two low level M class flares from solar region AR3294(S08W47,
beta). This region is has shown a decline in spot count. There
are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, with
newly emerging region AR3304(N21E25, beta). This region is showing
some growth. Other solar regions of interest AR3296(N14W60, beta)
and AR3297(N09W43, beta) are showing a decline in spot count
and have reduced in magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level, with the chance of an isolated R2 flare
over 12-14 May. The two M class flares were associated with west
directed CMEs. Event modelling shows both these CMEs as mostly
an Earth miss, with a very slight chance of a weak impact late
in the UT day on 14-May. The recent ASWAS S1 solar proton event
ended at 11/0350UT. The solar wind on UT day 11-May ranged from
609 to 493km/sec as recent CME influences abate. The solar wind
speed is currently at 523km/sec. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was 6 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
increase on 12-May due to an expected arrival of a CME from
the M4.2 flare CME on 9/1858UT and enhanced solar wind parameters
are expect to continue over 13-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: G0
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22211122
Cocos Island 4 1-111122
Darwin 4 21211112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 5 21221122
Alice Springs 4 11211122
Gingin 5 22211122
Canberra 5 22211112
Hobart 5 22211112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 4 22211111
Casey 11 33322223
Mawson 25 44433226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 74 (Active)
Hobart 73 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 22 4523 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 38 G2, chance G3
13 May 20 G0-G1
14 May 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 10 May and
is current for 10-12 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 11-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G2 observed at Mawson. G2 conditions, with the chance
of G3 geomagnetic conditions are expected from early in the UT
day on 12-May due to an anticipated CME arrival. Impacts are
expected to continue over 13-May, with periods of G1 possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2325UT 09/05, Ended at 0350UT 11/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
13 May Fair-normal Poor-normal Poor
14 May Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF communication conditions were observed
on 11-May, with degraded conditions at high latitudes due to increased
absorption at times. Degraded conditions are expected over 12-13
May due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35-40%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 95 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
13 May 65 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 45 was issued
on 9 May and is current for 11-12 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-May were near predicted monthly values to
40% enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart, Canberra and Townsville
at times during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be initially
near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15% for 12-May,
with southern Australian region MUFs becoming depressed during
local night hours by up to 20%. Northern Australian region MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values, with
the possibility of mild depressions, depending on the strength
of induced geomagnetic activity from the expected CME arrival
early on the 12-May. Degraded HF conditions are expected during
local night hours tonight, followed by depressed ionospheric
frequencies of support on 13-May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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