[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 11 09:30:56 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1421UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 170/124
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 168/122 166/120
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-May reached the R1 level,
with an M2 solar flare from AR3296 (N14W47, beta-gamma) at 10/1422,
and several C-class flares afterwards. There are currently 8
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3296 has persisted
to be the most significant region on the solar disk and has continued
to show spot development, although its delta configuration appears
to have decayed. AR3294 (S08W34, beta) showed some growth in
its trailer spots and AR3297 (N09W30, beta-gamma) also showed
some growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over
11-13 May. The halo CME mentioned in yesterday's report that
is visible from 09/1858UT has been further analysed to have a
time of arrival at 12/0000UT ± 12 hours. A slow CME was observed
from the northwest quadrant of the solar disk from 10/1516UT,
likely associated with the M2 flare. This CME has been analysed
not to be geoeffective. No other CMEs were observed on UT day
10-May. The 10 MeV proton flux remained at the S1 level over
UT day 10-May, with a maximum of 83.5 PFU observed at 10/1250UT.
S1 conditions are expected to continue on 11-May, trending towards
S0. Otherwise, if further M-class flares are observed from AR3296
then S1 conditions may persist over 11-12 May. The solar wind
on UT day 10-May was variable due to wanging effects from a recent
CME impact, ranging from 677 to 490 km/s and is currently near
580 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 20 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 19
to -13 nT. Bz was predominantly northward oriented over the UT
day, from the time of the CME impact from 09/2200UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to continue its decreasing trend on UT
day 11-May due to waning CME effects, but is expected to increase
on 12-May due to an expected CME impact first observed 9/1858UT
and continue over 13-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: G1
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 20 45334322
Cocos Island 17 35333322
Darwin 19 45334312
Townsville 24 46334322
Learmonth 22 45335322
Alice Springs 18 35334322
Gingin 21 44335332
Canberra 17 35334212
Hobart 17 34335311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 23 34246411
Casey 23 45434333
Mawson 37 54445364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 9 (Quiet)
Gingin 49 (Unsettled)
Canberra 79 (Active)
Hobart 95 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3411 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 20 G1-G2
12 May 38 G2-G3
13 May 20 G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 10 May and
is current for 10-12 May. In the BOM magnetometer data for 10
May, a weak (10nT) impulse was observed at 0713UT, indicating
the arrival of a CME first observed on 08-May. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Australian region on UT day 10-May.
All stations in the Australian region observed at least 1 period
of G1 geomagnetic conditions, and Townsville observed an isolated
period of G2 geomagnetic conditions. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 11-May. G2-G3 geomagnetic conditions
are expected either at the end of UT day 11-May or at the beginning
of UT day 12-May due to an anticipated CME arrival. Impacts are
expected to continue over 13-May, with periods of G1 possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1435UT 08/05, Ended at 1220UT 09/05
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 05 2023 2325UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal-fair Poor
12 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
13 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF communication conditions were observed
on 10-May, with some degradations observed at high latitude regions
due to an ongoing S1 solar radiation event. Further degraded
conditions are expected over 11-13 May due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
12 May 85 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
13 May 80 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on
9 May and is current for 9-11 May. ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 45 was issued on 9 May and is current for 11-12 May.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-May were enhanced
15-15% across the Australian region. Spread-F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. Scintillation was observed at
Weipa from 10/1403-1420UT. MUFs are expected to continue to be
enhanced by 15% over UT day 11-May, then tend towards near predicted
values to 20% depressed over 12-13 May due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity on 12-May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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