[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 10 09:30:56 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.5 0354UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0613UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 1020UT possible lower European
M4.2 1858UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.0 2052UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 178/131
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 9-May was at the R2 level,
with an M6.5 flare at 9/0354UT, an M1.2 flare at 9/0613UT, an
M1 flare at 9/0622UT, an M1.3 flare at 9/1020UT, a long duration
M4.2 flare at 9/1858UT and an M5.0 flare at 9/2052UT. All M-class
flares for the UT day were produced by AR3296 (N14W32, beta-gamma-delta).
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk
and five unnumbered regions. AR3296 showed spot development over
the UT-day, this region is also the most significant active region
on the solar disk being responsible for all M-class flares since
4-May. AR3297 (N09W19, beta-gamma-delta) is the largest active
region on the solar disk and exhibited decay in its trailer spots
over the UT-day. All other numbered sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Five unnumbered sunspot regions are visible
on the solar disk. One at N07E10 with beta-delta magnetic characteristics
which developed over the UT day. Two regions with beta magnetic
characteristics at S12E58 and N20E50 and a pair of alpha spots
at around N11E71 and N18E73, one of these regions may be returning
region AR3282 which was last observed at N12 and produced R1
level flaring when last on the solar disk. Solar activity is
expected to be at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 flares over
10-12 May. The greater than 10MeV proton flux is currently elevated
below the S1 threshold. The flux decreased during 9-May, with
a rise visible during the final hours of the UT day, likely due
to the long duration M4.2 flare and ongoing CME activity. An
S1 event is expected on 10-May. A halo CME is visible in LASCO
C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 9/1909UT, associated with the long
duration M4.2 flare at 9/1858UT. Modelling with limited imagery
predicts an impact with Earth on 11-May at 11/2000 +/- 12 hours,
further analysis will be performed when more imagery is available.
The solar wind speed declined over 9-May until a sudden shock
occurred at 9/2217UT. This shock is due to the anticipated impact
of a CME first observed on 7-May. The wind speed ranged from
379 to 588 km/s and is currently at around 580 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 16 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +13 to -11 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to increase on 10-May and remain
strong over 11-12 May due to an impact from a CME first observed
on 7-May. A further increase is anticipated late on 11-May due
to an impact from a CME first observed on 9-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: G0
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 6 22112113
Cocos Island 7 22311113
Darwin 5 22111113
Townsville 7 22212123
Learmonth 7 32211213
Alice Springs 4 22101112
Gingin 9 32212214
Canberra 5 22012113
Hobart 5 22012113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 12 33134213
Casey 15 33433323
Mawson 61 73333448
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 5221 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 30 G2, chance of G3
11 May 40 G2-G3
12 May 30 G1, chance of G2-G3
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 8 May and
is current for 10-11 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 9-May. The final period of the day
is expected to be at the G1 level or higher, however analysis
is ongoing. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G3 and G4 observed
at Mawson, analysis is ongoing for the final period of the day.
G2 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G3 are expected on
10-May due to an impact from a CME first observed on 7-May. G2-G3
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 11-May due to ongoing
effects from the 10-May impact and a further anticipated impact
from a CME first observed on 9-May. G1 conditions, with a chance
of G2-G3 are expected on 12-May, dependent on the effects of
the 10 and 11-May impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1220UT 08/05, Ended at 1405UT 08/05
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1435UT 08/05, Ended at 1220UT 09/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
12 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF communication conditions were observed
on UT day 9-May. Degraded conditions are expected over 10-12
May due to a recent CME impact and an anticipated CME impact
on 11-May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on
9 May and is current for 9-11 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 9-May were mostly near predicted monthly values
in the Northern Australian region, with enhancements of up to
20% observed in the Southern Australian region. Spread-F was
observed at Darwin during local night. Sporadic E was observed
at Brisbane, Canberra and Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed on 10-May
due to geomagnetic activity from a recent CME impact. Depressions
of up to 20% are expected over 11-12 May due to geomagnetic activity
from a recent CME impact and an anticipated impact on 11-May.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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