[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 09 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 10 09:30:56 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:  R2

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M6.5    0354UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    0613UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.3    1020UT  possible   lower  European
  M4.2    1858UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M5.0    2052UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 180/133


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 May             11 May             12 May
Activity     R1, chance of R2   R1, chance of R2   R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            178/131

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 9-May was at the R2 level, 
with an M6.5 flare at 9/0354UT, an M1.2 flare at 9/0613UT, an 
M1 flare at 9/0622UT, an M1.3 flare at 9/1020UT, a long duration 
M4.2 flare at 9/1858UT and an M5.0 flare at 9/2052UT. All M-class 
flares for the UT day were produced by AR3296 (N14W32, beta-gamma-delta). 
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk 
and five unnumbered regions. AR3296 showed spot development over 
the UT-day, this region is also the most significant active region 
on the solar disk being responsible for all M-class flares since 
4-May. AR3297 (N09W19, beta-gamma-delta) is the largest active 
region on the solar disk and exhibited decay in its trailer spots 
over the UT-day. All other numbered sunspot regions are either 
stable or in decay. Five unnumbered sunspot regions are visible 
on the solar disk. One at N07E10 with beta-delta magnetic characteristics 
which developed over the UT day. Two regions with beta magnetic 
characteristics at S12E58 and N20E50 and a pair of alpha spots 
at around N11E71 and N18E73, one of these regions may be returning 
region AR3282 which was last observed at N12 and produced R1 
level flaring when last on the solar disk. Solar activity is 
expected to be at the R1 level, with a chance of R2 flares over 
10-12 May. The greater than 10MeV proton flux is currently elevated 
below the S1 threshold. The flux decreased during 9-May, with 
a rise visible during the final hours of the UT day, likely due 
to the long duration M4.2 flare and ongoing CME activity. An 
S1 event is expected on 10-May. A halo CME is visible in LASCO 
C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 9/1909UT, associated with the long 
duration M4.2 flare at 9/1858UT. Modelling with limited imagery 
predicts an impact with Earth on 11-May at 11/2000 +/- 12 hours, 
further analysis will be performed when more imagery is available. 
The solar wind speed declined over 9-May until a sudden shock 
occurred at 9/2217UT. This shock is due to the anticipated impact 
of a CME first observed on 7-May. The wind speed ranged from 
379 to 588 km/s and is currently at around 580 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 16 nT and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +13 to -11 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to increase on 10-May and remain 
strong over 11-12 May due to an impact from a CME first observed 
on 7-May. A further increase is anticipated late on 11-May due 
to an impact from a CME first observed on 9-May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: G0

Estimated Indices 09 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22112113
      Cocos Island         7   22311113
      Darwin               5   22111113
      Townsville           7   22212123
      Learmonth            7   32211213
      Alice Springs        4   22101112
      Gingin               9   32212214
      Canberra             5   22012113
      Hobart               5   22012113    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
      Macquarie Island    12   33134213
      Casey               15   33433323
      Mawson              61   73333448

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   5221 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 May    30    G2, chance of G3
11 May    40    G2-G3
12 May    30    G1, chance of G2-G3

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 8 May and 
is current for 10-11 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on 9-May. The final period of the day 
is expected to be at the G1 level or higher, however analysis 
is ongoing. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G3 and G4 observed 
at Mawson, analysis is ongoing for the final period of the day. 
G2 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G3 are expected on 
10-May due to an impact from a CME first observed on 7-May. G2-G3 
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 11-May due to ongoing 
effects from the 10-May impact and a further anticipated impact 
from a CME first observed on 9-May. G1 conditions, with a chance 
of G2-G3 are expected on 12-May, dependent on the effects of 
the 10 and 11-May impacts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1220UT 08/05, Ended at 1405UT 08/05
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1435UT 08/05, Ended at 1220UT 09/05

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
11 May      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
12 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF communication conditions were observed 
on UT day 9-May. Degraded conditions are expected over 10-12 
May due to a recent CME impact and an anticipated CME impact 
on 11-May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 May   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      87
Jun      88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 May   100    Near predicted monthly values
11 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
12 May    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 
9 May and is current for 9-11 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 9-May were mostly near predicted monthly values 
in the Northern Australian region, with enhancements of up to 
20% observed in the Southern Australian region. Spread-F was 
observed at Darwin during local night. Sporadic E was observed 
at Brisbane, Canberra and Norfolk Island. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed on 10-May 
due to geomagnetic activity from a recent CME impact. Depressions 
of up to 20% are expected over 11-12 May due to geomagnetic activity 
from a recent CME impact and an anticipated impact on 11-May. 
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    9.0 p/cc  Temp:   212000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list