[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 May 23 issued 2341 UT on 08 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 9 09:41:34 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 07/2234UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.3 2025UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity R1, chance of R2 R0-R1 chance of R2 R0-R1 chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 8-May was at the R1 level,
with an M2.3 flare at 8/2025UT produced by AR3296 (N14W16, beta-gamma).
Additionally R1 conditions were observed at the start of the
UT day due to a declining long duration M1.5 flare from 7-May.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk
and one unnumbered region. AR3296 and AR3297 (N09W03, beta-gamma)
both showed development in their trailer spots. AR3297 is the
largest active region on the solar disk and AR3296 is the most
significant, being responsible for the day's M-class flare as
well as multiple high C-class flares. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered solar region appeared
on the solar disk over 8-May at around N07E10 with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. Ongoing high energy proton flux due
to recent CME activity has produced an S1 level event which is
ongoing at time of writing. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R1 level on 9-May and at the R0-R1 levels over 10-11 May,
with a chance of R2 flares on all three days. The proton flux
is expected to remain elevated over the first half of 9-May with
a decrease likely over 9-10 May, with an increase possible from
10-May due to CME activity. No geoeffective CMEs were observed
on 8-May A southwest directed CME was observed from 8/1123UT
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery, this CME was determined to
be a far side event. Multiple eruptions were observed on the
solar disk over the UT day. A filament lift off was observed
from 8/0509UT at around N10E10 in SDO and H-Alpha imagery. Two
eruptions were observed at 8/1017UT at around N18W27 and at 8/1429UT
at around N03W12 associated with a C4.6 flare and a C9.6 flare
at 8/1000UT and 8/1421UT respectively and both produced by AR3296.
A shock in the solar wind was observed at 8/1310UT, indicating
the arrival of a CME. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) reached 13 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
range was +11 to -12 nT, but has been predominantly northward
or low magnitude for 8-May. The solar wind speed was moderate
over 8-May, with a rise from 8/1124UT, likely due to a weak CME
impact, before dropping back down at time of writing. The wind
speed ranged from 431 to 555 km/s and is currently at around
472 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 9-11 May, due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects combined with recent CME activity. An increase is expected
on 10-May due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed
on 7-May. Additionally, with the recent increase in CME activity,
there remains the chance of small increases in solar wind speed
due to transient impacts over 9-11 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 9 32213322
Cocos Island 9 32113322
Darwin 9 32213322
Townsville 12 42223331
Learmonth 14 43224322
Alice Springs 9 32213322
Gingin 14 42223432
Canberra 8 32113321
Hobart 9 31113421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 11 32203432
Casey 15 33333333
Mawson 48 72334646
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 1222 3423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 12 G0
10 May 30 G2, chance of G3
11 May 15 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 8 May and
is current for 10-11 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 8-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed at Macquarie Island and Casey, with isolated periods
of G2 and a period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 9-May. G2 conditions, with a chance of G3 are
forecast for 10-May due to an anticipated impact at 10/0100UT
+/- 12 hours from a CME first observed on 7-May. G0-G1 conditions
are expected on 11-May as CME effects abate. Additionally, with
the recent increase in CME activity, there remains the chance
of transient impacts over 9-11 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1220UT 08/05, Ended at 1405UT 08/05
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 08 05 2023 1435UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
10 May Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF communication conditions were observed
on UT day 8-May. Normal HF communication conditions are expected
on 9-May. Degraded conditions are expected over 10-11 May due
to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 7-May.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 84
Jun 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 8-May were
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Northern Australian
region, with enhancements of up to 20% observed in the Southern
Australian region. Spread-F was observed at Darwin and Hobart
during local night. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra,
Perth, Norfolk Island and small amounts were observed at Townsville
and Learmonth during local evening and night. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values on 9-May. Depressions are
possible over 10-11 May due to an anticipated impact from a CME
first observed on 7-May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 12.6 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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