[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 08 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 9 09:31:47 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5 07/2234UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.3    2025UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 172/126


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     R1, chance of R2	R0-R1 chance of R2 R0-R1 chance of R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 8-May was at the R1 level, 
with an M2.3 flare at 8/2025UT produced by AR3296 (N14W16, beta-gamma). 
Additionally R1 conditions were observed at the start of the 
UT day due to a declining long duration M1.5 flare from 7-May. 
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk 
and one unnumbered region. AR3296 and AR3297 (N09W03, beta-gamma) 
both showed development in their trailer spots. AR3297 is the 
largest active region on the solar disk and AR3296 is the most 
significant, being responsible for the day's M-class flare as 
well as multiple high C-class flares. All other sunspot regions 
are either stable or in decay. An unnumbered solar region appeared 
on the solar disk over 8-May at around N07E10 with beta-gamma 
magnetic characteristics. Ongoing high energy proton flux due 
to recent CME activity has produced an S1 level event which is 
ongoing at time of writing. Solar activity is expected to be 
at the R1 level on 9-May and at the R0-R1 levels over 10-11 May, 
with a chance of R2 flares on all three days. The proton flux 
is expected to remain elevated over the first half of 9-May with 
a decrease likely over 9-10 May, with an increase possible from 
10-May due to CME activity. No geoeffective CMEs were observed 
on 8-May A southwest directed CME was observed from 8/1123UT 
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery, this CME was determined to 
be a far side event. Multiple eruptions were observed on the 
solar disk over the UT day. A filament lift off was observed 
from 8/0509UT at around N10E10 in SDO and H-Alpha imagery. Two 
eruptions were observed at 8/1017UT at around N18W27 and at 8/1429UT 
at around N03W12 associated with a C4.6 flare and a C9.6 flare 
at 8/1000UT and 8/1421UT respectively and both produced by AR3296. 
A shock in the solar wind was observed at 8/1310UT, indicating 
the arrival of a CME. The peak total interplanetary field strength 
(IMF, Bt) reached 13 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) 
range was +11 to -12 nT, but has been predominantly northward 
or low magnitude for 8-May. The solar wind speed was moderate 
over 8-May, with a rise from 8/1124UT, likely due to a weak CME 
impact, before dropping back down at time of writing. The wind 
speed ranged from 431 to 555 km/s and is currently at around 
472 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated 
over 9-11 Apr, due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream 
effects combined with recent CME activity. An increase is expected 
on 10-Apr due to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed 
on 7-Apr. Additionally, with the recent increase in CME activity, 
there remains the chance of small increases in solar wind speed 
due to transient impacts over 9-11 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   32213321
      Cocos Island         9   32113322
      Darwin               9   32213321
      Townsville          12   42223331
      Learmonth           14   43224322
      Alice Springs        9   32213321
      Gingin              14   42223432
      Canberra             8   32113321
      Hobart               9   31113421    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
      Macquarie Island    11   32203432
      Casey               15   33333333
      Mawson              48   72334646

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1222 3423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May    12    G0
10 May    30    G2, chance of G3
11 May    15    G0-G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed at Macquarie 
Island and Casey, with isolated periods of G2 and a period of 
G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
on 9-Apr. G2 conditions, with a chance of G3 are forecast for 
10-Apr due to an anticipated impact at 10/0100UT +/- 12 hours 
from a CME first observed on 7-Apr. G0-G1 conditions are expected 
on 11-Apr as CME effects abate. Additionally, with the recent 
increase in CME activity, there remains the chance of transient 
impacts over 9-11 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1220UT 08/05, Ended at 1405UT 08/05
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 08 05 2023 1435UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
10 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF communication conditions were observed 
on UT day 8-May. Normal HF communication conditions are expected 
on 9-May. Degraded conditions are expected over 10-11 May due 
to an anticipated impact from a CME first observed on 7-Apr. 
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      84
Jun      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 May    90    Near predicted monthly values
11 May    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 8-May were 
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Northern Australian 
region, with enhancements of up to 20% observed in the Southern 
Australian region. Spread-F was observed at Darwin and Hobart 
during local night. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra, 
Perth, Norfolk Island and small amounts were observed at Townsville 
and Learmonth during local evening and night. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values on 9-May. Depressions are 
possible over 10-11 May due to an anticipated impact from a CME 
first observed on 7-Apr. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:   12.6 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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