[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 8 09:30:31 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 2234UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-May was at R1 levels, with
two consecutive M1.5 flares from AR3296 (N16W03, beta). There
are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3293
(N13W17, beta), 3296 and AR3297 (N09E11, beta-gamma) have all
shown some growth over the 24 hour period. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 08-10 May, with a chance of R2 flares.
No new CMEs were observed on UT day 07-May in available imagery.
A shock in the solar wind was observed at 07/1445UT, indicating
the arrival of a recent CME. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) reached 19 nT at the time of the shock, but
is currently near 10 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +15 to -9 nT, but has been predominantly northward since
the CME arrival. The solar wind speed on UT day 07-May ranged
from 402 to 522 km/s, and is currently near 440 km/s. The solar
wind speed is expected to begin to decline by the end of the
UT day, and stay at background levels over 09-10 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: G1
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 9 12222422
Cocos Island 9 13212422
Darwin 9 11223422
Townsville 11 12223423
Learmonth 13 22223522
Alice Springs 8 11222422
Gingin 7 12222322
Canberra 6 11222312
Hobart 7 11222322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 3 11210211
Casey 10 23331223
Mawson 12 23432322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 28 4644 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 20 G0-G1, chance G2
09 May 14 G0
10 May 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 6 May and
is current for 6-8 May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Learmonth. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 08-May, with a chance of G2, due to the late arrival of a
CME first observed on 05-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 09-10 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
09 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF communication conditions were observed on
UT day 07-May, with spread-F observed at high and mid-latitude
regions. Further degraded HF communication conditions are expected
in high latitude regions on 08-May. Normal HF communication conditions
can be expected over 09-10 May. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 84
Jun 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 85 Near predicted monthly values with some mild
depressions
09 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on
5 May and is current for 6-8 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 07-May were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 30% enhanced in the Australia region. Spread-F was observed
at Brisbane, Townsville and Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values on 08-May, with some mild depressions
possible. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over
09-10 May, with some enhancements possible. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 12.0 p/cc Temp: 295000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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