[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 May 23 issued 2331 UT on 06 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 7 09:31:06 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-May was at R0 levels, with
the largest solar flare being a long-duration C6 flare from AR3296
(N16E12, beta-gamma). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3293 (N13W04, beta) and AR3299 (S06E46,
beta-gamma) have shown slight growth over the 24 hour period.
AR3296, which has previously produced numerous M-class flares,
has started to decay. All other sunspot regions are stable. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 07-09 May, with
a chance of R2. From 06/0049UT in the southwest limb, magnetic
loops can be observed breaking apart in GOES SUVI imagery. A
large CME was observed from this region from 06/0125UT, but has
been analysed not to have any earth-directed component. Filament
eruptions in the northwest and southwest were observed from 06/1402UT
and 06/1609UT respectively. CMEs were observed from both of these
eruptions, but have been analysed to not have any significant
earth-directed components. No other CMEs were observed. On UT
day 06-May the solar wind speed increased and ranged between
320 to 551 km/s, and is currently near 500 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 19 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +17 to -16 nT. Bz was oriented southward
from 06/0030UT to 06/0400UT, and was intermittently southward
until 06/1130UT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
further on 07-May, due to an anticipated impact from a CME first
observed on 05-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: G0
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 13 33334222
Cocos Island 12 23433122
Darwin 11 33233222
Townsville 12 33234222
Learmonth 17 43344232
Alice Springs 11 33233222
Gingin 14 33334232
Canberra 11 33233222
Hobart 14 23244322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 28 24365342
Casey 15 43433222
Mawson 42 76434342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 30 G1-G2, chance of G3
08 May 20 G1-G2
09 May 14 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 6 May and
is current for 6-8 May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 06-May. G0-G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed globally, with a period of G1 followed
by a period of G2 in the planetary indices. This geomagnetic
activity was likely induced by the onset of 2 coronal holes and
a possible CME impact. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions over 07-08 May, with a chance of
isolated periods of G3, due to a second CME impact and ongoing
coronal hole wind stream effects. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected by 09-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
08 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
09 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF communication conditions were observed
on 06-May, with spread-F present at high latitude regions and
sporadic-E at low latitude regions. Degraded HF conditions are
expected, particularly in high latitude regions, over 07-08 May
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Normal HF communication
conditions are expected by 09-May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 84
Jun 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 75 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
08 May 70 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
09 May 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on
5 May and is current for 6-8 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 06-May in the Australian region were near predicted
values to 30% enhanced. Strong spread-F was observed in Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15-20% depressed over late 07-08 May due to
anticipated geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to return
to mostly near predicted monthly values by 09-May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 18100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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