[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 6 09:30:11 EST 2023


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.1    0802UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    1531UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 162/116


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-May was at the R1 level, 
with AR3296 (N16E28, beta-gamma) producing a long-duration M2 
flare at 05/0800UT and an M1 flare at 05/1532UT. AR3296 has increased 
in magnetic complexity over the 24-hour period, and AR3297 (N09E38, 
beta) has shown some slight growth. All other sunspot regions 
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to 
be at R1-R2 levels over 06-08 May. The CME from yesterday's forecast 
observed at 04/1048UT has been further analysed and it may have 
a glancing geoeffective component, arriving to Earth late 06-May 
to early 07-May, however this event is difficult to differentiate 
from other CME activity around the same time. Many CMEs were 
observed from the Sun on 05-May. A partial halo CME was associated 
with the M2 flare, and can be observed from 05/0824UT from LASCO 
C3 imagery. Analysis suggest this CME will be geoeffective and 
arrive at Earth late 07-May, however since there are already 
CMEs en route expected to increase solar wind speeds, the CME 
from the M2 flare may arrive earlier than expected. A very faint 
partial halo CME was associated with the M1 flare from 05/1532UT, and can be 
observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 05/1600UT. This CME may have 
a weak geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT day 
05-May had a decreasing trend, and ranged from 400-30 km/s. The 
peak interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -4 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to increase on 06-May due to 
a small equatorial coronal hole and a larger southern coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. A further increase in the solar 
wind speed is expected over 07-08 May due to multiple CME impacts.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: G0

Estimated Indices 05 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Cocos Island         1   21100000
      Darwin               3   21110112
      Townsville           2   11110111
      Learmonth            2   12000110
      Alice Springs        1   10100111
      Gingin               1   10000110
      Canberra             1   11000110
      Hobart               1   10010111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   10020000
      Casey                3   22210110
      Mawson              10   42110143

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1221 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    16    G0-G1
07 May    26    G1-G2, chance G3
08 May    20    G0-G1, chance G2

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 5 May and 
is current for 6-7 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in both the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 05-May. 
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on UT day 06-May due 
to an equatorial coronal hole wind stream and a southern coronal 
hole wind stream. Compounding with multiple CME impacts on 07-May, 
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected. G0-G1 geomagnetic 
conditions with a chance of G2 are expected on 08-May as geomagnetic 
activity eases.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 May      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair
08 May      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF communication conditions were observed 
on 05-May. Mostly normal conditions are expected on 06-May, with 
some mild degradations possible due to coronal hole wind stream 
effects. Further degraded conditions are possible over 07-08 
May due to further anticipated geomagnetic activity from multiple 
CME impacts.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      120
May      84
Jun      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    95    Near predicted monthly values
07 May    75    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
08 May    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 
5 May and is current for 6-8 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 05-May in the Australian region were near predicted 
monthly values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local 
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to depressed 20% over 07-08 May due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    64900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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