[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 6 09:30:11 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 0802UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1531UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-May was at the R1 level,
with AR3296 (N16E28, beta-gamma) producing a long-duration M2
flare at 05/0800UT and an M1 flare at 05/1532UT. AR3296 has increased
in magnetic complexity over the 24-hour period, and AR3297 (N09E38,
beta) has shown some slight growth. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R1-R2 levels over 06-08 May. The CME from yesterday's forecast
observed at 04/1048UT has been further analysed and it may have
a glancing geoeffective component, arriving to Earth late 06-May
to early 07-May, however this event is difficult to differentiate
from other CME activity around the same time. Many CMEs were
observed from the Sun on 05-May. A partial halo CME was associated
with the M2 flare, and can be observed from 05/0824UT from LASCO
C3 imagery. Analysis suggest this CME will be geoeffective and
arrive at Earth late 07-May, however since there are already
CMEs en route expected to increase solar wind speeds, the CME
from the M2 flare may arrive earlier than expected. A very faint
partial halo CME was associated with the M1 flare from 05/1532UT, and can be
observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 05/1600UT. This CME may have
a weak geoeffective component. The solar wind speed on UT day
05-May had a decreasing trend, and ranged from 400-30 km/s. The
peak interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +2 to -4 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to increase on 06-May due to
a small equatorial coronal hole and a larger southern coronal
hole high speed wind stream. A further increase in the solar
wind speed is expected over 07-08 May due to multiple CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: G0
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Cocos Island 1 21100000
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 2 11110111
Learmonth 2 12000110
Alice Springs 1 10100111
Gingin 1 10000110
Canberra 1 11000110
Hobart 1 10010111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 1 10020000
Casey 3 22210110
Mawson 10 42110143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1221 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 16 G0-G1
07 May 26 G1-G2, chance G3
08 May 20 G0-G1, chance G2
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 5 May and
is current for 6-7 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in both the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 05-May.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on UT day 06-May due
to an equatorial coronal hole wind stream and a southern coronal
hole wind stream. Compounding with multiple CME impacts on 07-May,
G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions with a chance of G2 are expected on 08-May as geomagnetic
activity eases.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 May Normal-fair Fair Fair
08 May Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF communication conditions were observed
on 05-May. Mostly normal conditions are expected on 06-May, with
some mild degradations possible due to coronal hole wind stream
effects. Further degraded conditions are possible over 07-08
May due to further anticipated geomagnetic activity from multiple
CME impacts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 84
Jun 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 75 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
08 May 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on
5 May and is current for 6-8 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 05-May in the Australian region were near predicted
monthly values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to depressed 20% over 07-08 May due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 64900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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